What if… Trump doubles tariffs on Canadian imports

◇ Hypothetical scenario. What if… Trump doubles tariffs on Canadian imports? The analysis positions NUE, WY and CENX to benefit and CNQ, MGA and NTR under pressure; confidence medium.

Hypothetical scenario — this analysis maps conditional exposure (“if this happens, who is exposed”). It is not graded against market prices unless the event occurs.

Analyzed 2026-09-04 — point-in-time, never revised. A hypothetical scenario is never graded.

Ranked exposures

1. ▼ CNQ Canadian Natural Resources — impact -82 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
   Tariffs reduce Canadian crude netbacks, lowering Canadian Natural Resources' realized prices in the United States.
2. ▼ MGA Magna International — impact -82 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
   Tariffs raise Canadian component costs, disrupting Magna's integrated cross-border vehicle assembly operations.
3. ▲ NUE Nucor — impact +78 · confidence high · horizon weeks
   Tariffs restrict Canadian steel imports, giving Nucor greater pricing power across domestic steel markets.
4. ▲ WY Weyerhaeuser — impact +78 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
   Duties restrict Canadian lumber supply, giving Weyerhaeuser greater pricing power in domestic markets.
5. ▼ NTR Nutrien — impact -75 · confidence high · horizon weeks
   Tariffs raise Canadian potash costs in the United States, weakening Nutrien's export competitiveness.
6. ▼ MPC Marathon Petroleum — impact -75 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
   Tariffs raise Canadian crude feedstock costs, compressing Marathon Petroleum's Midwest refining margins.
7. ▼ PSX Phillips 66 — impact -73 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
   Tariffs increase Canadian crude costs, compressing Phillips 66's refining margins at heavy-oil-configured facilities.
8. ▲ CENX Century Aluminum — impact +72 · confidence high · horizon immediate
   Canadian aluminum tariffs raise competing import costs, giving Century Aluminum greater domestic pricing power.
9. ▼ CP Canadian Pacific Kansas City — impact -71 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
   Tariffs suppress cross-border trade, reducing Canadian Pacific Kansas City's merchandise freight volumes.
10. ▼ CNI Canadian National Railway — impact -68 · confidence high · horizon weeks
    Tariffs suppress cross-border trade, reducing Canadian National Railway's freight volumes and network utilization.
11. ▲ STLD Steel Dynamics — impact +68 · confidence high · horizon weeks
    Tariffs reduce Canadian steel competition, increasing Steel Dynamics' domestic pricing power and customer orders.
12. ▲ LPX Louisiana-Pacific — impact +67 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
    Tariffs increase Canadian panel prices, strengthening Louisiana-Pacific's competitive position in domestic markets.
13. ▼ DINO HF Sinclair — impact -66 · confidence low · horizon immediate
    Operating costs increase at northern refineries configured specifically to process imported Western Canadian Select oil.
14. ▲ CLF Cleveland-Cliffs — impact +65 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
    Tariffs raise Canadian steel delivered prices, strengthening Cleveland-Cliffs' pricing power in domestic sheet markets.
15. ▼ VLO Valero Energy — impact -64 · confidence low · horizon immediate
    Valero Energy incurs higher feedstock costs as tariffs disrupt Canadian heavy crude imports used by its complex refineries.
16. ▼ GM General Motors — impact -61 · confidence low · horizon weeks
    General Motors incurs higher costs for Canadian vehicles and components crossing the border.
17. ▼ ENB Enbridge — impact -60 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
    Tariffs weaken US demand, reducing Enbridge's cross-border pipeline throughput of Canadian energy volumes.
18. ▼ DHI D.R. Horton — impact -58 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
    Tariffs raise lumber procurement costs, compressing D.R. Horton's margins on residential construction.
19. ▲ CF CF Industries — impact +58 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
    Tariffs raise delivered costs for Canadian fertilizer, strengthening CF Industries' pricing power among domestic nitrogen producers.
20. ▲ OXY Occidental Petroleum — impact +58 · confidence low · horizon weeks
    Domestic crude benchmark pricing gains relative support as imported Canadian heavy oil becomes significantly more expensive for refiners.
21. ▼ LEN Lennar — impact -57 · confidence low · horizon immediate
    Lennar pays more for Canadian lumber increasing home construction costs and pressuring gross margins.
22. ▲ MOS Mosaic — impact +55 · confidence low · horizon weeks
    Fertilizer tariffs constrain Canadian potash competition, supporting Mosaic's domestic pricing and sales volumes across North American agricultural markets.
23. ▼ TRP TC Energy — impact -52 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
    Tariffs weaken Canadian exports, reducing TC Energy's cross-border pipeline throughput of Canadian commodities.
24. ▲ COP ConocoPhillips — impact +52 · confidence low · horizon quarters
    United States exploration revenue rises due to sustained premium pricing for domestic light and heavy crude oil grades.

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Stocks in this scenario

CNQ · MGA · NUE · WY · NTR · MPC · PSX · CENX · CP · CNI · STLD · LPX · DINO · CLF · VLO · GM · ENB · DHI · CF · OXY · LEN · MOS · TRP · COP · EOG

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