Scenarios that move VLO

Valero Energy Corporation Common Stock

Scenarios that move VLO: 94 analyses, 60 positive, 31 negative.

  1. · Iranian Guards say two tankers hit mines in Hormuz — ▼ · impact -60 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  2. · PetroChina set for record trading profit as war upends markets — ▲ · impact +58 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  3. · Trump waives many Russia-related sanctions and tariffs under new law — ▼ · impact -68 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  4. · ExxonMobil expects refining profits to jump $4.5 billion — ▲ · impact +82 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  5. · ◇ What if… Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026 — ▲ · impact +44 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  6. · ◇ What if… Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026 — ▲ · impact +40 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  7. · ◇ What if… Iran and Oman fail to reach a Hormuz agreement — ▲ · impact +45 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  8. · Iran’s precision strikes damage Gulf infrastructure and blunt US war plans — ▲ · impact +55 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  9. · TotalEnergies flags quarterly profit surge as Iran war lifts energy prices — ▲ · impact +68 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  10. · Delta Air Lines cuts 2026 earnings outlook — ▲ · impact +71 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  11. · Container ship sinks near Hormuz after projectile strike — ▼ · impact -42 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  12. · US consumer prices accelerate in September as gasoline costs rise — ▲ · impact +67 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  13. · ◇ What if… Iran and Oman reach Hormuz agreement by October 31 — ▲ · impact +61 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  14. · US blockade keeps Iranian crude exports at zero in October — ▼ · impact -57 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  15. · Saudi Arabia leads OPEC+ output increase despite Iran war — ▲ · impact +68 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  16. · ◇ What if… Iran reaches Hormuz agreement as Republicans win Senate — ▲ · impact +56 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  17. · Americas face heavy-oil glut as freight squeeze disrupts trade — ▲ · impact +78 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  18. · Saudi Arabia faces new missile and drone attacks — ▲ · impact +30 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  19. · ◇ What if… Houthis launch military action against Saudi Arabia on October 15 — ▼ · impact -40 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  20. · ◇ What if… Iran reaches Hormuz agreement as Democrats win Senate — ▲ · impact +78 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  21. · ◇ What if… US imports Russian diesel by October 31 — ▼ · impact -72 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  22. · US military disables cargo vessel breaching Iran blockade — ▼ · impact -28 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  23. · Cavitation Technologies agrees to $42 million cash acquisition — ▲ · impact +4 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  24. · Delta Air Lines Q3 earnings miss estimates as fuel costs hurt margins — ▲ · impact +72 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  25. · Global stocks and Treasuries fall as Brent tops $102 — ▲ · impact +62 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  26. · Ryanair warns insanely higher jet fuel costs could persist into 2028 — ▲ · impact +78 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  27. · Oil tanker transits through Hormuz fall to two-month low — ▼ · impact -56 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  28. · IEA says it will accelerate oil reserve release — ▼ · impact -67 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  29. · Iran official says illegal Strait of Hormuz routes will soon be blocked — ▼ · impact -61 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  30. · Shell sees record-high refining margins in third quarter — ▲ · impact +80 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  31. · ◇ What if… Crude oil reaches $150 a barrel — ▲ · impact +55 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  32. · ◇ What if… Israel accuses Iran proxies over plane stabbing incident by October 31 — ▲ · impact +42 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  33. · Petrobras stock rises 11.5% in trading — ▼ · impact -48 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  34. · Saudi Arabia plans assault on Houthis to reopen Red Sea — ▲ · impact +45 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  35. · OPEC+ delays oil capacity review as Iran war disrupts plans — ▲ · impact +57 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  36. · Putin says Russia will withhold diesel exports until sanctions lifted — ▲ · impact +85 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  37. · ◇ What if… Saudi Arabia restarts East-West oil pipeline by October 15 — ▲ · impact +57 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  38. · ◇ What if… US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15 — ▲ · impact +71 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  39. · US to loan up to 40 million barrels from SPR — ▲ · impact +69 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  40. · ◇ What if… Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by December 31 — ▲ · impact +55 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  41. · Trump rejects Iran peace proposal as oil spikes — ▲ · impact +45 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  42. · US to finalize sharply lower vehicle fuel economy standards — ▲ · impact +36 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
  43. · Trump backs diesel export ban as fuel prices hit records — ▼ · impact -82 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  44. · Vessel traffic through Strait of Hormuz falls to two — ▼ · impact -72 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  45. · ◇ What if… Iran undergoes leadership change by December 31 — ▲ · impact +58 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  46. · Petrobras board approves joining Brazil's diesel subsidy program — ▼ · impact -31 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  47. · Global diesel prices hit records as further rises loom — ▲ · impact +88 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  48. · ◇ What if… Iran loses control of Kharg Island by December 31 — ▲ · impact +58 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  49. · ◇ What if… US and Iran ceasefire continues through September 30 — ▲ · impact +40 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  50. · Global diesel shortage likely to persist into 2027 — ▲ · impact +88 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  51. · ◇ What if… Delcy Rodríguez leads Venezuela at end of 2026 — ▼ · impact -47 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  52. · ◇ What if… Nicolás Maduro remains Venezuela's leader at end of 2026 — ▼ · impact -67 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
  53. · ◇ What if… US and Iran fail to hold diplomatic meeting by September 30 — ▼ · impact -40 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  54. · Trump signs Russia sanctions bill into law — ▲ · impact +47 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  55. · ◇ What if… US and Iran hold diplomatic meeting by September 30 — ▲ · impact +51 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  56. · ◇ What if… Xavier Becerra wins California’s 2026 governor election — ▼ · impact -63 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
  57. · ◇ What if… US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31 — ▲ · impact +30 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  58. · ◇ What if… Iran charges fees for Strait of Hormuz passage by October 31 — ▼ · impact -55 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  59. · ◇ What if… Reza Pahlavi enters Iran by December 31 — ▼ · impact -46 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  60. · ◇ What if… Saudi Arabia restarts East-West oil pipeline by September 30 — ▲ · impact +67 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  61. · Houthis strike Saudi targets as Hormuz talks stall — ▼ · impact -43 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  62. · Dangote launches Africa’s biggest oil refinery as ‘people’s IPO’ — ▼ · impact -61 · confidence high · horizon quarters
  63. · Trump says US could stay in Iran and keep oil — ▼ · impact -51 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  64. · Saudi Arabia shuts oil pipeline as Houthis tighten Red Sea grip — ▲ · impact +40 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  65. · Saudi Arabia reports Iraq-launched drones hit East-West pipeline — ▼ · impact -55 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  66. · Iran-US shipping attacks drive oil tanker rates to records — ▼ · impact -46 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  67. · ◇ What if… Crude oil reaches a new all-time high by December 31 — ▼ · impact -55 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  68. · Trump administration to sanction a large unnamed bank on Monday — ▲ · impact +48 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  69. · ◇ What if… Iran withdraws from the NPT before 2027 — ▼ · impact -40 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  70. · Houthis tighten control over strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait — ▲ · impact +30 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  71. · ECB set to raise rates as Iran war fuels inflation — ▲ · impact +55 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  72. · Merchant vessels suffer disabling fires in Gulf — ▼ · impact -25 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  73. · Middle East tensions push oil toward $100 as Asia stocks weaken — ▲ · impact +57 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  74. · Iran missile launch at Jordan lifts oil prices — ▲ · impact +30 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  75. · South African economy shrinks in second quarter amid Iran war — ▲ · impact +42 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  76. · ◇ What if… US and Iran reach a final nuclear deal by December 31 — ▲ · impact +68 · confidence high · horizon weeks
  77. · US-Iranian strikes push Strait of Hormuz traffic to lowest since May — ▲ · impact +45 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  78. · ◇ What if… Strait of Hormuz disruption drives crude oil prices 30% higher — ◆ · confidence low · horizon immediate
  79. · ◇ What if… Global oil prices reach $150 a barrel — ◆ · confidence low · horizon immediate
  80. · Trump says US may strike Iran's Pickaxe Mountain soon — ▲ · impact +45 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  81. · Ukraine and Iran wars push diesel to record highs — ▲ · impact +88 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  82. · US attack hits Iranian tanker near Kharg Island — ▼ · impact -43 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  83. · Renewed US-Iran strikes lift oil and diesel prices — ▲ · impact +75 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  84. · Iran fires on Kuwait after reported US wedding attack — ▲ · impact +45 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  85. · ◇ What if… Israel closes its airspace by September 30 — ▼ · impact -41 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  86. · ◇ What if… Iran closes its entire airspace by September 30 — ▲ · impact +35 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  87. · ◇ What if… Trump doubles tariffs on Canadian imports — ▼ · impact -64 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  88. · ◇ What if… US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30 — ▲ · impact +72 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  89. · ◇ What if… Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 — ▲ · impact +30 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  90. · ◇ What if… Iranian regime falls before 2027, reshaping regional energy markets — ◆ · confidence low · horizon immediate
  91. · OPEC Announces Surprise 2M Barrel Increase — ▲ · confidence low
  92. · ◇ What if… OPEC Doubles Oil Production Flooding Global Markets — ▲ · confidence low
  93. · ◇ What if… Federal Government Bans All Crude Oil Exports Effective Immediately — ▲ · confidence high
  94. · OPEC Announces Surprise Production Cut Of 2 Million Barrels Per Day — ▲ · confidence low

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