Scenarios that move MPC

Marathon Petroleum Corporation Common Stock

Scenarios that move MPC: 63 analyses, 37 positive, 25 negative.

  1. · PetroChina set for record trading profit as war upends markets — ▲ · impact +55 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  2. · Trump waives many Russia-related sanctions and tariffs under new law — ▼ · impact -63 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  3. · ExxonMobil expects refining profits to jump $4.5 billion — ▲ · impact +80 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  4. · TotalEnergies flags quarterly profit surge as Iran war lifts energy prices — ▲ · impact +78 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  5. · Delta Air Lines cuts 2026 earnings outlook — ▲ · impact +69 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  6. · Container ship sinks near Hormuz after projectile strike — ▼ · impact -40 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  7. · US consumer prices accelerate in September as gasoline costs rise — ▲ · impact +69 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  8. · ◇ What if… Democrats win Ohio governor race in 2026 — ▼ · impact -24 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  9. · ◇ What if… Iran and Oman reach Hormuz agreement by October 31 — ▲ · impact +59 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  10. · US blockade keeps Iranian crude exports at zero in October — ▼ · impact -55 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  11. · Saudi Arabia leads OPEC+ output increase despite Iran war — ▲ · impact +62 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  12. · ◇ What if… Iran reaches Hormuz agreement as Republicans win Senate — ▲ · impact +57 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  13. · Americas face heavy-oil glut as freight squeeze disrupts trade — ▲ · impact +74 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  14. · ◇ What if… Houthis launch military action against Saudi Arabia on October 15 — ▼ · impact -38 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  15. · ◇ What if… Iran reaches Hormuz agreement as Democrats win Senate — ▲ · impact +75 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  16. · ◇ What if… US imports Russian diesel by October 31 — ▼ · impact -68 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  17. · Delta Air Lines Q3 earnings miss estimates as fuel costs hurt margins — ▲ · impact +70 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  18. · Global stocks and Treasuries fall as Brent tops $102 — ▲ · impact +45 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  19. · Ryanair warns insanely higher jet fuel costs could persist into 2028 — ▲ · impact +78 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  20. · Oil tanker transits through Hormuz fall to two-month low — ▼ · impact -57 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  21. · IEA says it will accelerate oil reserve release — ▼ · impact -45 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  22. · Iran official says illegal Strait of Hormuz routes will soon be blocked — ▼ · impact -52 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  23. · Shell sees record-high refining margins in third quarter — ▲ · impact +80 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  24. · ◇ What if… Crude oil reaches $150 a barrel — ▲ · impact +58 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  25. · Cenovus Energy agrees to acquire Athabasca Oil — ▲ · impact +35 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  26. · ◇ What if… Democrats win Texas Senate race in 2026 — ▼ · impact -15 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  27. · OPEC+ delays oil capacity review as Iran war disrupts plans — ▲ · impact +59 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  28. · Putin says Russia will withhold diesel exports until sanctions lifted — ▲ · impact +82 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  29. · ◇ What if… Saudi Arabia restarts East-West oil pipeline by October 15 — ▲ · impact +56 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  30. · US sanctions Iran’s auto and rail sectors as blockade chokes shipping — ▲ · impact +55 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  31. · ◇ What if… US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15 — ▲ · impact +55 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  32. · US to loan up to 40 million barrels from SPR — ▲ · impact +66 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  33. · ◇ What if… Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by December 31 — ▲ · impact +42 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  34. · US to finalize sharply lower vehicle fuel economy standards — ▲ · impact +35 · confidence high · horizon quarters
  35. · Trump backs diesel export ban as fuel prices hit records — ▼ · impact -74 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  36. · ◇ What if… Iran undergoes leadership change by December 31 — ▲ · impact +54 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  37. · Petrobras board approves joining Brazil's diesel subsidy program — ▼ · impact -27 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  38. · Global diesel prices hit records as further rises loom — ▲ · impact +85 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  39. · Global diesel shortage likely to persist into 2027 — ▲ · impact +85 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  40. · ◇ What if… Delcy Rodríguez leads Venezuela at end of 2026 — ▼ · impact -51 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  41. · ◇ What if… Nicolás Maduro remains Venezuela's leader at end of 2026 — ▼ · impact -55 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
  42. · ◇ What if… US and Iran hold diplomatic meeting by September 30 — ▲ · impact +49 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  43. · ◇ What if… Xavier Becerra wins California’s 2026 governor election — ▼ · impact -42 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  44. · ◇ What if… Reza Pahlavi enters Iran by December 31 — ▼ · impact -44 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  45. · ◇ What if… Saudi Arabia restarts East-West oil pipeline by September 30 — ▲ · impact +63 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  46. · Dangote launches Africa’s biggest oil refinery as ‘people’s IPO’ — ▼ · impact -60 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
  47. · Trump says US could stay in Iran and keep oil — ▼ · impact -45 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  48. · Saudi Arabia reports Iraq-launched drones hit East-West pipeline — ▼ · impact -68 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  49. · Iran-US shipping attacks drive oil tanker rates to records — ▼ · impact -41 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  50. · ◇ What if… Crude oil reaches a new all-time high by December 31 — ▼ · impact -35 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  51. · US EIA raises oil forecasts as Iran war drains stockpiles — ▲ · impact +48 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  52. · ◇ What if… US and Iran reach a final nuclear deal by December 31 — ▲ · impact +70 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  53. · ◇ What if… Strait of Hormuz disruption drives crude oil prices 30% higher — ▼ · impact -55 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  54. · Ukraine and Iran wars push diesel to record highs — ▲ · impact +85 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  55. · US attack hits Iranian tanker near Kharg Island — ▼ · impact -41 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  56. · Renewed US-Iran strikes lift oil and diesel prices — ▲ · impact +75 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  57. · ◇ What if… OPEC announces surprise 2M barrel production cut — ▲ · impact +68 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  58. · ◇ What if… Israel closes its airspace by September 30 — ▼ · impact -39 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  59. · ◇ What if… Trump doubles tariffs on Canadian imports — ▼ · impact -75 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  60. · ◇ What if… US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30 — ▲ · impact +45 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  61. · ◇ What if… Iranian regime falls before 2027, reshaping regional energy markets — ◆ · confidence low · horizon immediate
  62. · OPEC Announces Surprise 2M Barrel Increase — ▲ · confidence low
  63. · ◇ What if… Federal Government Bans All Crude Oil Exports Effective Immediately — ▲ · confidence high

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