Scenarios that move COP
ConocoPhillips Common Stock
Scenarios that move COP: 105 analyses, 66 positive, 39 negative.
- · Iranian Guards say two tankers hit mines in Hormuz — ▲ · impact +80 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · PetroChina set for record trading profit as war upends markets — ▲ · impact +60 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026 — ▼ · impact -70 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Iran and Oman fail to reach a Hormuz agreement — ▲ · impact +72 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Iran’s precision strikes damage Gulf infrastructure and blunt US war plans — ▲ · impact +74 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · TotalEnergies flags quarterly profit surge as Iran war lifts energy prices — ▲ · impact +84 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Delta Air Lines cuts 2026 earnings outlook — ▲ · impact +55 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · US consumer prices accelerate in September as gasoline costs rise — ▲ · impact +65 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Iran and Oman reach Hormuz agreement by October 31 — ▼ · impact -60 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Greg Abel expands Berkshire Hathaway's Occidental Petroleum stake — ▼ · impact -28 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
- · US blockade keeps Iranian crude exports at zero in October — ▲ · impact +70 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Saudi Arabia leads OPEC+ output increase despite Iran war — ▼ · impact -65 · confidence high · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Iran reaches Hormuz agreement as Republicans win Senate — ▼ · impact -70 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · Iran fortifies nuclear sites ahead of possible US strikes — ▲ · impact +62 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · Saudi Arabia faces new missile and drone attacks — ▲ · impact +65 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Houthis launch military action against Saudi Arabia on October 15 — ▲ · impact +77 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Iran reaches Hormuz agreement as Democrats win Senate — ▼ · impact -65 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · Iran calls US response to Hormuz reopening proposal insufficient — ▲ · impact +65 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Democrats win Michigan Senate race in 2026 — ▼ · impact -50 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · Delta Air Lines Q3 earnings miss estimates as fuel costs hurt margins — ▲ · impact +51 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
- · Global stocks and Treasuries fall as Brent tops $102 — ▲ · impact +87 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · Ryanair warns insanely higher jet fuel costs could persist into 2028 — ▲ · impact +55 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… US and Iran ceasefire continues through October 15 — ▼ · impact -68 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · Oil tanker transits through Hormuz fall to two-month low — ▲ · impact +50 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · Chevron offloads Hess Midstream stake, takes up to $4 billion hit — ▲ · impact +15 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · IEA says it will accelerate oil reserve release — ▼ · impact -70 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Iran official says illegal Strait of Hormuz routes will soon be blocked — ▲ · impact +73 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · US EIA hikes oil price forecasts as Iran war drains stockpiles — ▲ · impact +84 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · S&P 500 hits record high as nuclear stocks surge — ▼ · impact -63 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Crude oil reaches $150 a barrel — ▲ · impact +88 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Yemeni government forces seize strategic strait from Houthis — ▼ · impact -50 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · Petrobras stock rises 11.5% in trading — ▲ · impact +55 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · Cenovus Energy agrees to acquire Athabasca Oil — ▼ · impact -35 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Democrats win Texas Senate race in 2026 — ▼ · impact -60 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · OPEC+ delays oil capacity review as Iran war disrupts plans — ▲ · impact +68 · confidence high · horizon weeks
- · Putin says Russia will withhold diesel exports until sanctions lifted — ▲ · impact +55 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Saudi Arabia restarts East-West oil pipeline by October 15 — ▼ · impact -65 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · US sanctions Iran’s auto and rail sectors as blockade chokes shipping — ▲ · impact +60 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Republicans win Ohio Senate race in 2026 — ▲ · impact +39 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · Projectiles hit three oil tankers in Strait of Hormuz — ▲ · impact +65 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15 — ▼ · impact -76 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · US to loan up to 40 million barrels from SPR — ▼ · impact -58 · confidence high · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by December 31 — ▼ · impact -67 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · Trump rejects Iran peace proposal as oil spikes — ▲ · impact +75 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Dan Sullivan wins Alaska’s 2026 Senate race — ▲ · impact +55 · confidence high · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Trump and Putin fail to hold a meeting — ▲ · impact +65 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · Vessel traffic through Strait of Hormuz falls to two — ▲ · impact +72 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Iran undergoes leadership change by December 31 — ▼ · impact -64 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · Iran offers to reopen Strait of Hormuz if US eases pressure — ▼ · impact -72 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Global diesel prices hit records as further rises loom — ▲ · impact +60 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Mary Peltola wins Alaska’s 2026 Senate race — ▲ · impact +27 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Iran loses control of Kharg Island by December 31 — ▲ · impact +71 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… US and Iran ceasefire continues through September 30 — ▼ · impact -65 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Delcy Rodríguez leads Venezuela at end of 2026 — ▲ · impact +30 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Nicolás Maduro remains Venezuela's leader at end of 2026 — ▼ · impact -40 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Samuel Alito announces retirement by December 31, 2026 — ▼ · impact -45 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · Trump signs Russia sanctions bill into law — ▲ · impact +66 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… US and Iran hold diplomatic meeting by September 30 — ▼ · impact -65 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31 — ▼ · impact -60 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Iran charges fees for Strait of Hormuz passage by October 31 — ▲ · impact +62 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · Exosens raises 2026 targets on stronger production and sales momentum — ▼ · impact -40 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Reza Pahlavi enters Iran by December 31 — ▼ · impact -58 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Saudi Arabia restarts East-West oil pipeline by September 30 — ▼ · impact -68 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Houthis strike Saudi targets as Hormuz talks stall — ▲ · impact +75 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Dangote launches Africa’s biggest oil refinery as ‘people’s IPO’ — ▲ · impact +20 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · Trump says US could stay in Iran and keep oil — ▲ · impact +74 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · Saudi Arabia shuts oil pipeline as Houthis tighten Red Sea grip — ▲ · impact +80 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Saudi Arabia reports Iraq-launched drones hit East-West pipeline — ▲ · impact +70 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Iran-US shipping attacks drive oil tanker rates to records — ▲ · impact +66 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Crude oil reaches a new all-time high by December 31 — ▲ · impact +85 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… WTI crude oil reaches $100 in September — ▲ · impact +82 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Houthis tighten control over strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait — ▲ · impact +55 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · ECB set to raise rates as Iran war fuels inflation — ▲ · impact +65 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · US EIA raises oil forecasts as Iran war drains stockpiles — ▲ · impact +80 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Merchant vessels suffer disabling fires in Gulf — ▲ · impact +70 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · Middle East tensions push oil toward $100 as Asia stocks weaken — ▲ · impact +76 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · Iran missile launch at Jordan lifts oil prices — ▲ · impact +78 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · South African economy shrinks in second quarter amid Iran war — ▲ · impact +77 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · Iran plans new Gulf exclusion zone and threatens US — ▲ · impact +74 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Iran and Oman reach a Hormuz agreement by September 30 — ▼ · impact -65 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… US and Iran reach a final nuclear deal by December 31 — ▼ · impact -76 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · US-Iranian strikes push Strait of Hormuz traffic to lowest since May — ▲ · impact +74 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Strait of Hormuz disruption drives crude oil prices 30% higher — ▲ · impact +91 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Global oil prices reach $150 a barrel — ▲ · impact +89 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · US and allies seek IAEA referral of Iran to UN Security Council — ▲ · impact +59 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · Trump says US may strike Iran's Pickaxe Mountain soon — ▲ · impact +78 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · Ukraine and Iran wars push diesel to record highs — ▲ · impact +50 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · US attack hits Iranian tanker near Kharg Island — ▲ · impact +74 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Renewed US-Iran strikes lift oil and diesel prices — ▲ · impact +74 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · Iran fires on Kuwait after reported US wedding attack — ▲ · impact +72 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… OPEC announces surprise 2M barrel production cut — ▲ · impact +87 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Iran closes its entire airspace by September 30 — ▲ · impact +68 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire by December 31, 2026 — ▼ · impact -50 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Trump doubles tariffs on Canadian imports — ▲ · impact +52 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Israel-Iran ceasefire continues through September 30 — ▼ · impact -65 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30 — ▼ · impact -67 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… New People (NL) gains the most seats in Russia’s next parliamentary election — ▼ · impact -35 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 — ▼ · impact -75 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Putin leaves office as Russia’s president by December 31, 2026 — ▼ · impact -55 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Iranian regime falls before 2027, reshaping regional energy markets — ▼ · impact -56 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… US invasion of Iran occurs before 2027, threatening global energy markets — ▲ · impact +82 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · OPEC Announces Surprise 2M Barrel Increase — ▼ · confidence high
- · ◇ What if… OPEC Doubles Oil Production Flooding Global Markets — ▼ · confidence high
- · ◇ What if… Federal Government Bans All Crude Oil Exports Effective Immediately — ▼ · confidence high
- · OPEC Announces Surprise Production Cut Of 2 Million Barrels Per Day — ▲ · confidence medium