Michael Burry buys puts on Nvidia, Micron and Palantir

Michael Burry buys puts on Nvidia, Micron and Palantir: the analysis positions GS, BRK.B and JPM to benefit and PLTR, MSFT and MU under pressure; confidence high.

Analyzed 2026-09-30 — point-in-time, never revised. Outcomes are scored against SPY and published either way.

Ranked exposures

▼ PLTR Palantir — impact -75 · confidence high · horizon immediate · 1st order
Bearish disclosure undermines Palantir's sentiment-driven valuation when momentum investors sell its shares.
Chain: Burry discloses put position against Palantir → named target draws headline attention from retail holders → momentum holders trim exposure into the news → multiple compression hits a sentiment-priced stock
What would break the call: A strong government bookings quarter with raised guidance restores momentum buying and offsets the disclosure.
▼ MSFT Microsoft — impact -65 · confidence low · horizon immediate · 3rd order
Microsoft Azure growth rate slows when Burry put purchases question the pace of AI infrastructure buildout.
Chain: bearish AI bet questions data center spending → investors reprice hyperscaler capex return expectations → Microsoft capital intensity draws more scrutiny → Azure growth premium in the multiple narrows
What would break the call: Azure growth reaccelerates above guidance next quarter and capex commentary stays disciplined.
▼ MU Micron — impact -62 · confidence high · horizon immediate · 1st order
Bearish put disclosure intensifies Micron selling by reviving concerns about cyclical DRAM oversupply.
Chain: Burry discloses put position against Micron → memory cycle bear case regains attention → investors revisit DRAM and HBM supply risk → shares derate ahead of any pricing change
What would break the call: Contract DRAM and HBM prices rise again next quarter with sold out capacity commentary.
▼ NVDA Nvidia — impact -60 · confidence high · horizon immediate · 1st order
Newly purchased puts force dealers to hedge by selling Nvidia shares, creating pressure independent of data-center demand.
Chain: Burry discloses large notional Nvidia puts → dealers hedge short gamma by selling stock → headline risk amplifies momentum unwinding → shares fall without demand deterioration
What would break the call: Nvidia reports another beat and raise on data center revenue and shares gap higher.
▼ AMD AMD — impact -60 · confidence low · horizon weeks · 2nd order
AMD processor order volume shrinks as Burry put activity weighs on broader semiconductor confidence.
Chain: bearish bets hit the AI chip complex → investors cut exposure across accelerator names → AMD trades as a high beta proxy → MI-series revenue expectations get discounted
What would break the call: AMD announces a major MI accelerator supply agreement with a top hyperscaler.
▲ GS Goldman — impact +60 · confidence low · horizon weeks · 2nd order
Goldman Sachs derivatives revenue increases following heightened trading activity sparked by Burry put buys.
Chain: high profile bearish bet raises hedging demand → options and volatility trading volumes increase → dealer desks capture wider spreads → equity derivatives revenue improves
What would break the call: Volatility falls back to prior lows within weeks and hedging volumes normalize.
▼ CRWV CoreWeave — impact -58 · confidence low · horizon weeks · 2nd order
CoreWeave funds GPU buildouts with debt and equity, so weaker share prices raise its cost of capital.
Chain: AI capex skepticism spreads to GPU renters → equity and debt investors demand higher yield → CoreWeave financing cost for GPU buildouts rises → future contract margins and growth plans tighten
What would break the call: CoreWeave signs a large prepaid contract and closes financing at tighter spreads.
▼ NBIS Nebius Group — impact -55 · confidence low · horizon immediate · 2nd order
Nebius appears among the disclosed put positions and depends on equity markets to fund its GPU cloud expansion.
Chain: Burry discloses bearish position including Nebius → neocloud funding model draws investor scrutiny → equity raises become more dilutive → GPU capacity expansion plans slow
What would break the call: Nebius signs a large multiyear capacity contract and reaffirms its annualized revenue target.
▼ TSM TSMC — impact -55 · confidence low · horizon weeks · 2nd order
TSMC foundry revenue decreases when concerns from Burry spread across the chip manufacturing industry.
Chain: bearish AI bets pressure chip designers → foundry customers seen slowing wafer bookings → TSMC advanced node utilization expectations fall → shares derate on cycle doubt
What would break the call: TSMC raises full year revenue guidance on AI demand at its next monthly sales update.
▲ BRK.B Berkshire — impact +55 · confidence low · horizon weeks · 3rd order
Berkshire gains higher returns when Burry activity reinforces value investing over technology growth stocks.
Chain: bearish AI signal encourages defensive rotation → capital moves from growth to value names → Berkshire cash pile seen as optionality → relative valuation support improves
What would break the call: A broad tech rally resumes and money rotates back out of defensive value names.
▼ ASML ASML — impact -50 · confidence low · horizon weeks · 3rd order
ASML equipment sales slow down after Burry bets indicate reduced future semiconductor industry expansion plans.
Chain: AI capex doubt reaches foundry customers → foundries delay leading edge capacity additions → ASML EUV order intake expectations fall → bookings guidance faces downward revision
What would break the call: ASML reports record EUV bookings driven by logic and memory capacity expansion.
▼ SMCI Super Micro Computer — impact -50 · confidence low · horizon weeks · 2nd order
Super Micro relies on convertible issuance to finance inventory, and a falling stock makes that financing costlier.
Chain: AI server demand assumptions get questioned → Super Micro inventory risk draws attention → convertible financing becomes more expensive → working capital and margin pressure increases
What would break the call: Super Micro beats revenue guidance and reports improving gross margin with cleaner inventory.
▲ JPM JPMorgan — impact +50 · confidence low · horizon weeks · 2nd order
JPMorgan trading revenue rises when Burry put purchases create higher market volatility and volume.
Chain: bearish disclosure raises market volatility → client hedging and trading volumes increase → market making spreads widen → equities trading revenue rises
What would break the call: Volatility fades quickly and trading volumes revert to prior quarter levels.
▼ AMZN Amazon — impact -45 · confidence low · horizon weeks · 3rd order
Amazon web services pricing power weakens following Burry signals of potential technology sector correction.
Chain: AI spending skepticism hits cloud peers → investors question AWS capex return timeline → depreciation and free cash flow scrutiny increases → multiple compresses on the cloud segment
What would break the call: AWS growth accelerates and Amazon reports free cash flow above consensus.
▼ VRT Vertiv — impact -45 · confidence low · horizon weeks · 2nd order
Vertiv's order book tracks data center capex, so doubts about AI spending compress its valuation and backlog expectations.
Chain: AI capex doubt spreads to infrastructure suppliers → data center power and cooling orders questioned → Vertiv backlog growth expectations fall → high multiple compresses on the shares
What would break the call: Vertiv raises guidance on record orders and book to bill above one.
▼ ORCL Oracle — impact -44 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 2nd order
Oracle funds cloud capacity with borrowed money, and credit spreads widen when investors doubt AI contract profitability.
Chain: investors question AI contract profitability → Oracle debt funded cloud buildout draws scrutiny → credit spreads on Oracle bonds widen → interest expense and equity multiple both worsen
What would break the call: Oracle reports OCI revenue conversion ahead of plan with improving cloud gross margin.
▼ AVGO Broadcom — impact -42 · confidence low · horizon weeks · 2nd order
Broadcom's custom accelerator revenue rides the same hyperscaler budgets that bears question, linking its shares to Nvidia sentiment.
Chain: hyperscaler AI budgets questioned by bears → custom accelerator order assumptions get discounted → Broadcom AI semiconductor revenue guidance doubted → shares trade with Nvidia sentiment
What would break the call: Broadcom announces a new multibillion dollar custom accelerator customer commitment.
▼ CLS Celestica — impact -40 · confidence low · horizon weeks · 3rd order
Celestica builds networking hardware for hyperscalers, so doubts about AI capex compress its rerated earnings multiple.
Chain: AI capex skepticism reaches hardware suppliers → hyperscaler switch and rack orders questioned → Celestica CCS segment growth expectations fall → the rerated multiple compresses quickly
What would break the call: Celestica raises full year guidance on new hyperscaler program wins.
▼ WDC Western Digital — impact -40 · confidence low · horizon weeks · 2nd order
Western Digital's nearline drive pricing depends on AI storage buildouts, leaving the stock exposed to capex skepticism.
Chain: AI storage buildout expectations get questioned → nearline HDD pricing assumptions come down → Western Digital margin outlook narrows → shares derate with the capex complex
What would break the call: Western Digital raises nearline pricing again on sold out capacity through next year.
▲ XOM Exxon — impact +40 · confidence low · horizon weeks · 3rd order
Exxon oil revenue grows as Burry puts prompt investor rotation into the energy sector.
Chain: AI trade doubt triggers sector rotation → capital moves toward cash generating energy names → Exxon relative valuation and flows improve → shares outperform the broad index
What would break the call: Crude prices fall sharply on oversupply and energy underperforms despite the rotation.
▼ MRVL Marvell Technology — impact -38 · confidence low · horizon weeks · 2nd order
Marvell custom silicon and optics revenue depends on the same hyperscaler budgets targeted by the bearish thesis.
Chain: hyperscaler AI budget doubt increases → custom ASIC program timing questioned → Marvell data center revenue guidance discounted → shares fall with the accelerator group
What would break the call: Marvell confirms a new custom accelerator socket with a major cloud customer.
▲ CBOE Cboe Global Markets — impact +38 · confidence medium · horizon immediate · 2nd order
Heavier options trading driven by downside hedging increases Cboe's overall transaction-fee revenue.
Chain: bearish disclosure lifts downside hedging demand → index and single stock option volumes rise → Cboe transaction fees per contract accumulate → transaction clearing revenue increases
What would break the call: Options volumes decline as volatility compresses and index option activity slows.
▲ NDAQ Nasdaq — impact +38 · confidence low · horizon immediate · 2nd order
Nasdaq collects higher equity and options transaction revenue as hedging activity lifts turnover in heavily traded technology tickers.
Chain: hedging demand raises technology ticker turnover → equity and options volumes increase on Nasdaq → transaction based revenue per share rises → market services segment revenue improves
What would break the call: A sustained tech drawdown freezes the IPO pipeline and offsets trading revenue gains.
▲ VIRT Virtu Financial — impact +36 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
Elevated options demand for downside protection increases Virtu's market-making revenue from wider spreads.

Sources

What happened

Horizon	Verdict	Top pick	Excess vs SPY
1 trading days	Wrong	GS	-1.5% vs SPY
5 trading days	Mixed	GS	-4.0% vs SPY

Related scenarios

Stocks in this scenario

PLTR · MSFT · MU · NVDA · AMD · GS · CRWV · NBIS · TSM · BRK.B · ASML · SMCI · JPM · AMZN · VRT · ORCL · AVGO · CLS · WDC · XOM · MRVL · CBOE · NDAQ · VIRT · ARM · DELL · CME · CVX · HOOD · IBKR · KO · SCHW · ICE · NEM · SNEX

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