Scenarios that move XOM
ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation Common Stock
Scenarios that move XOM: 192 analyses, 116 positive, 76 negative.
- · PetroChina set for record trading profit as war upends markets — ▲ · impact +82 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… US confirms extraterrestrial life exists before 2027 — ▼ · impact -70 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · Trump waives many Russia-related sanctions and tariffs under new law — ▲ · impact +52 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
- · ExxonMobil expects refining profits to jump $4.5 billion — ▲ · impact +88 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · Trump says US may need to strike Iran's Pickaxe Mountain — ▲ · impact +64 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Apple becomes the world's largest company by market cap — ▼ · impact -30 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026 — ▼ · impact -80 · confidence high · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026 — ▲ · impact +63 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Iran and Oman fail to reach a Hormuz agreement — ▲ · impact +82 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Benjamin Netanyahu leaves Israel's premiership before 2027 — ▼ · impact -46 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Iran’s precision strikes damage Gulf infrastructure and blunt US war plans — ▲ · impact +80 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · TotalEnergies flags quarterly profit surge as Iran war lifts energy prices — ▲ · impact +84 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · FuelCell Energy shares fall 15% amid Fit Energy disclosure scrutiny — ▲ · impact +50 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · Delta Air Lines cuts 2026 earnings outlook — ▲ · impact +62 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · BWXT raises 2026 guidance as commercial nuclear growth accelerates — ▼ · impact -30 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · Hot US inflation weighs on markets as CoreWeave plunges 15% — ▲ · impact +41 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
- · Berkshire Hathaway builds $37.4 billion Alphabet stake — ▼ · impact -40 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · Tesla to report Q3 earnings with automotive margins in focus — ▼ · impact -50 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · Container ship sinks near Hormuz after projectile strike — ▲ · impact +80 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · US consumer prices accelerate in September as gasoline costs rise — ▲ · impact +72 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Democrats win Ohio governor race in 2026 — ▼ · impact -45 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Iran and Oman reach Hormuz agreement by October 31 — ▼ · impact -62 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Greg Abel expands Berkshire Hathaway's Occidental Petroleum stake — ▼ · impact -25 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · US blockade keeps Iranian crude exports at zero in October — ▲ · impact +75 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Saudi Arabia leads OPEC+ output increase despite Iran war — ▼ · impact -66 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Iran reaches Hormuz agreement as Republicans win Senate — ▼ · impact -74 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Aleksandar Vučić becomes Serbia’s next prime minister — ▼ · impact -35 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · Iran fortifies nuclear sites ahead of possible US strikes — ▲ · impact +77 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Americas face heavy-oil glut as freight squeeze disrupts trade — ▼ · impact -40 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · Quanta sees 220% to 240% load center growth — ▼ · impact -30 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · Saudi Arabia faces new missile and drone attacks — ▲ · impact +72 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Europe faces another year of high gas prices as reserves fall — ▲ · impact +70 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · Airlines cancel Saudi flights after Riyadh airport attacks — ▲ · impact +48 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · India's September inflation nears RBI tolerance ceiling — ▲ · impact +62 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Houthis launch military action against Saudi Arabia on October 15 — ▲ · impact +78 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Iran reaches Hormuz agreement as Democrats win Senate — ▼ · impact -75 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… US and Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15 — ▼ · impact -44 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · Iran calls US response to Hormuz reopening proposal insufficient — ▲ · impact +78 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… US imports Russian diesel by October 31 — ▼ · impact -45 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · US military disables cargo vessel breaching Iran blockade — ▲ · impact +64 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Students Win takes most seats in Serbia’s 2026 election — ▼ · impact -18 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Democrats win Michigan Senate race in 2026 — ▼ · impact -18 · confidence high · horizon quarters
- · Delta Air Lines Q3 earnings miss estimates as fuel costs hurt margins — ▲ · impact +55 · confidence high · horizon weeks
- · HELE Q2 earnings beat estimates, guidance raised on margin gains — ▼ · impact -40 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · Three Saudi nationals killed in Riyadh airport attacks — ▲ · impact +57 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Global stocks and Treasuries fall as Brent tops $102 — ▲ · impact +84 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · Ryanair warns insanely higher jet fuel costs could persist into 2028 — ▲ · impact +58 · confidence high · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Luca Niculescu becomes Romania's next prime minister — ▲ · impact +35 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… US and Iran ceasefire continues through October 15 — ▼ · impact -62 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Oil tanker transits through Hormuz fall to two-month low — ▲ · impact +55 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Google nuclear deal could strengthen Constellation Energy outlook — ▼ · impact -30 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · Chevron offloads Hess Midstream stake, takes up to $4 billion hit — ▼ · impact -45 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · IEA says it will accelerate oil reserve release — ▼ · impact -73 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · Iran official says illegal Strait of Hormuz routes will soon be blocked — ▲ · impact +82 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · POSCO secures KRW 1.1 trillion LFP cathode supply deal with SK On — ▼ · impact -15 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Aleksandar Vučić’s United Serbia wins most seats in 2026 election — ▼ · impact -35 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · Shell sees record-high refining margins in third quarter — ▲ · impact +55 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · EU envoys set to approve major new Russia sanctions — ▲ · impact +62 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · US EIA hikes oil price forecasts as Iran war drains stockpiles — ▲ · impact +80 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · S&P 500 hits record high as nuclear stocks surge — ▼ · impact -63 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · Energy Transfer agrees to acquire Vaquero Midstream for $2.6 billion — ▲ · impact +30 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Crude oil reaches $150 a barrel — ▲ · impact +85 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Yemeni government forces seize strategic strait from Houthis — ▼ · impact -54 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Israel accuses Iran proxies over plane stabbing incident by October 31 — ▲ · impact +52 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Petrobras stock rises 11.5% in trading — ▲ · impact +75 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Democrats win Kansas Senate race in 2026 — ▼ · impact -45 · confidence high · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Democrats win South Carolina Senate race in 2026 — ▼ · impact -70 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · Cenovus Energy agrees to acquire Athabasca Oil — ▼ · impact -45 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Republicans win Kansas Senate race in 2026 — ▲ · impact +56 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Republicans win Texas Senate race in 2026 — ▲ · impact +62 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Democrats win Texas Senate race in 2026 — ▼ · impact -34 · confidence high · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Lula wins most votes in Brazil's 2026 presidential first round — ▼ · impact -62 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · Saudi Arabia plans assault on Houthis to reopen Red Sea — ▲ · impact +50 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · GE Vernova's BWRX-300 secures first US construction permit — ▼ · impact -35 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · US stocks rally as weak jobs data cools Fed hike bets — ▼ · impact -60 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · OPEC+ delays oil capacity review as Iran war disrupts plans — ▲ · impact +62 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Putin says Russia will withhold diesel exports until sanctions lifted — ▲ · impact +65 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Saudi Arabia restarts East-West oil pipeline by October 15 — ▼ · impact -70 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Renan Santos finishes third in Brazil's 2026 presidential first round — ▼ · impact -65 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · YPF's $24 billion Argentina LNG project gains US financing — ▲ · impact +30 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · US sanctions Iran’s auto and rail sectors as blockade chokes shipping — ▲ · impact +80 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Flavio Bolsonaro wins most votes in Brazil's 2026 presidential first round — ▲ · impact +40 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Republicans win Ohio Senate race in 2026 — ▲ · impact +57 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
- · Projectiles hit three oil tankers in Strait of Hormuz — ▲ · impact +80 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Shell greenlights LNG Canada Phase 2, doubling export capacity — ▼ · impact -18 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · Michael Burry buys puts on Nvidia, Micron and Palantir — ▲ · impact +40 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15 — ▼ · impact -76 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · Carnival beats Q3 earnings estimates on record revenue and yields — ▲ · impact +35 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · CRK signs $1.65 billion framework agreement with SOCAR — ▼ · impact -45 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · Nvidia unveils historic buyback as stock gains 1.7% — ▼ · impact -25 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · US to loan up to 40 million barrels from SPR — ▼ · impact -51 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Jean-Luc Mélenchon wins France’s 2027 presidential election — ▼ · impact -19 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by December 31 — ▼ · impact -75 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · Trump rejects Iran peace proposal as oil spikes — ▲ · impact +82 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Gadi Eizenkot becomes Israel's next prime minister — ▼ · impact -46 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · US to finalize sharply lower vehicle fuel economy standards — ▲ · impact +45 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Republicans win Nebraska Senate race in 2026 — ▲ · impact +40 · confidence high · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Zelenskyy leaves Ukraine presidency by end of 2026 — ▲ · impact +39 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Russia enters Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026 — ▲ · impact +65 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Dan Sullivan wins Alaska’s 2026 Senate race — ▲ · impact +36 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Trump and Putin fail to hold a meeting — ▲ · impact +66 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · Bond yields spike as stocks drop while Boeing bucks trend — ▲ · impact +40 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Naftali Bennett becomes Israel's next prime minister — ▼ · impact -31 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · Trump backs diesel export ban as fuel prices hit records — ▼ · impact -34 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Nasdaq hits intraday record high on Alphabet and Mideast hopes — ▼ · impact -78 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Vessel traffic through Strait of Hormuz falls to two — ▲ · impact +82 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Republicans win control of Senate after 2026 midterms — ▲ · impact +68 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Iran undergoes leadership change by December 31 — ▲ · impact +82 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · Iran offers to reopen Strait of Hormuz if US eases pressure — ▼ · impact -66 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Global diesel prices hit records as further rises loom — ▲ · impact +58 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Mary Peltola wins Alaska’s 2026 Senate race — ▼ · impact -31 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Iran loses control of Kharg Island by December 31 — ▲ · impact +70 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… US and Iran ceasefire continues through September 30 — ▼ · impact -75 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Global diesel shortage likely to persist into 2027 — ▲ · impact +63 · confidence high · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… NATO and Russia clash militarily by October 31, 2026 — ▲ · impact +75 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Delcy Rodríguez leads Venezuela at end of 2026 — ▲ · impact +51 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Nicolás Maduro remains Venezuela's leader at end of 2026 — ▲ · impact +50 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Samuel Alito announces retirement by December 31, 2026 — ▲ · impact +28 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… US and Iran fail to hold diplomatic meeting by September 30 — ▲ · impact +76 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · UN report says US strike on Iran school may be war crime — ▲ · impact +65 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Trump signs Russia sanctions bill into law — ▲ · impact +67 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · US clears $24.3 billion fighter jet sale to Saudi Arabia — ▲ · impact +25 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… China imposes a blockade on Taiwan — ▲ · impact +45 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… US and Iran hold diplomatic meeting by September 30 — ▼ · impact -72 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31 — ▼ · impact -55 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Iran charges fees for Strait of Hormuz passage by October 31 — ▲ · impact +72 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Exosens raises 2026 targets on stronger production and sales momentum — ▼ · impact -50 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Israel strikes four countries in 2026 — ▲ · impact +70 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… US enters recession by end of 2026 — ▼ · impact -55 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Reza Pahlavi enters Iran by December 31 — ▲ · impact +63 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Saudi Arabia restarts East-West oil pipeline by September 30 — ▼ · impact -69 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Houthis enter Aden by September 30 — ▲ · impact +75 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before term ends — ▲ · impact +50 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · Houthis strike Saudi targets as Hormuz talks stall — ▲ · impact +78 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Dangote launches Africa’s biggest oil refinery as ‘people’s IPO’ — ▲ · impact +50 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Worldwide earthquakes reach 17 to 19 magnitude 7.0 or higher in 2026 — ▼ · impact -30 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Democrats win control of Senate and House after 2026 midterms — ▼ · impact -72 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
- · Trump says US could stay in Iran and keep oil — ▲ · impact +75 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… SPD wins most seats in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s 2026 election — ▼ · impact -25 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · Saudi Arabia shuts oil pipeline as Houthis tighten Red Sea grip — ▲ · impact +78 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Saudi Arabia reports Iraq-launched drones hit East-West pipeline — ▲ · impact +82 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Iran-US shipping attacks drive oil tanker rates to records — ▲ · impact +45 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… AfD wins most seats in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s 2026 election — ▲ · impact +28 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Crude oil reaches a new all-time high by December 31 — ▲ · impact +88 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… David Lisnard wins France’s 2027 presidential election — ▲ · impact +58 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · Trump administration to sanction a large unnamed bank on Monday — ▲ · impact +62 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… WTI crude oil reaches $100 in September — ▲ · impact +80 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Iran withdraws from the NPT before 2027 — ▲ · impact +76 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Benjamin Netanyahu becomes Israel's next prime minister — ▲ · impact +32 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · Houthis tighten control over strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait — ▲ · impact +45 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ECB set to raise rates as Iran war fuels inflation — ▲ · impact +80 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · US EIA raises oil forecasts as Iran war drains stockpiles — ▲ · impact +82 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Dow weighs exiting $20 billion partnership with Aramco — ▲ · impact +30 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Israeli forces withdraw beyond the Litani River by December 31 — ▼ · impact -51 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Magdalena Andersson becomes Sweden’s next prime minister — ▼ · impact -35 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · Merchant vessels suffer disabling fires in Gulf — ▲ · impact +57 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Middle East tensions push oil toward $100 as Asia stocks weaken — ▲ · impact +78 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Iran missile launch at Jordan lifts oil prices — ▲ · impact +75 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Iran says it captured US submarine drone in Strait of Hormuz — ▲ · impact +75 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · South African economy shrinks in second quarter amid Iran war — ▲ · impact +80 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Marine Le Pen wins France’s 2027 presidential election — ▲ · impact +50 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Netanyahu leaves office as Israel's prime minister by end of 2026 — ▼ · impact -25 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Democrats win control of the House after 2026 midterm elections — ▼ · impact -75 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · Iran plans new Gulf exclusion zone and threatens US — ▲ · impact +75 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Iran and Oman reach a Hormuz agreement by September 30 — ▼ · impact -68 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… US and Iran reach a final nuclear deal by December 31 — ▼ · impact -62 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · US-Iranian strikes push Strait of Hormuz traffic to lowest since May — ▲ · impact +75 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Strait of Hormuz disruption drives crude oil prices 30% higher — ▲ · impact +89 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Global oil prices reach $150 a barrel — ▲ · impact +91 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · US and allies seek IAEA referral of Iran to UN Security Council — ▲ · impact +68 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Trump says US may strike Iran's Pickaxe Mountain soon — ▲ · impact +82 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Ukraine and Iran wars push diesel to record highs — ▲ · impact +61 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · Hot jobs report lifts two-year Treasury yield to highest since January 2025 — ▲ · impact +40 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · US attack hits Iranian tanker near Kharg Island — ▲ · impact +72 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Renewed US-Iran strikes lift oil and diesel prices — ▲ · impact +85 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · Iran fires on Kuwait after reported US wedding attack — ▲ · impact +80 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… OPEC announces surprise 2M barrel production cut — ▲ · impact +82 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Israel closes its airspace by September 30 — ▲ · impact +52 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Anthropic has the highest IPO market cap in 2026 — ▼ · impact -25 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Iran closes its entire airspace by September 30 — ▲ · impact +80 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire by December 31, 2026 — ▼ · impact -73 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Israel-Iran ceasefire continues through September 30 — ▼ · impact -73 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30 — ▼ · impact -69 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… New People (NL) gains the most seats in Russia’s next parliamentary election — ▼ · impact -41 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… United Russia wins the most seats in Russia’s next parliamentary election — ▲ · impact +45 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Trump leaves office as US president before 2027 — ▼ · impact -25 · confidence high · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Flávio Bolsonaro wins Brazil’s 2026 presidential election, reshaping Latin America’s largest economy — ▼ · impact -65 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 — ▼ · impact -65 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Putin leaves office as Russia’s president by December 31, 2026 — ▼ · impact -52 · confidence high · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Iranian regime falls before 2027, reshaping regional energy markets — ▼ · impact -57 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… US invasion of Iran occurs before 2027, threatening global energy markets — ▲ · impact +85 · confidence high · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… China Blockades Taiwan — ▲ · impact +54 · confidence medium · horizon immediate