JPMorgan Chase Q3 earnings and revenue miss estimates

JPMorgan Chase Q3 earnings and revenue miss estimates: the analysis positions VIRT, CME and COIN to benefit and JPM, BAC and WFC under pressure; confidence high.

Analyzed 2026-10-13 — point-in-time, never revised. Outcomes are scored against SPY and published either way.

Ranked exposures

  1. ▼ JPM JPMorgan — impact -90 · confidence high · horizon immediate · 1st order
    JPMorgan's revenue and earnings miss directly lowers profitability and resets near-term profit expectations.
    Chain: quarterly revenue and EPS land below consensus → net interest income and fee lines disappoint → forward guidance resets lower for next quarters → multiple compresses on reduced earnings power
    What would break the call: Management raises full year net interest income guidance on the call and shares recover the gap.
  2. ▼ BAC Bank of America — impact -70 · confidence high · horizon immediate · 2nd order
    Higher deposit costs and weaker loan yields compress Bank of America's net interest margin.
    Chain: JPMorgan flags deposit repricing and softer loan yields → investors extend the read across to peers → Bank of America net interest margin assumptions cut → earnings estimates and valuation move lower
    What would break the call: Bank of America reports its own quarter with net interest income above guidance, breaking the read across.
  3. ▼ WFC Wells Fargo — impact -66 · confidence high · horizon immediate · 2nd order
    Rising credit risks increase Wells Fargo's provisions after JPMorgan signals weaker lending conditions.
    Chain: JPMorgan signals weaker consumer and commercial credit → provision expectations rise across large lenders → Wells Fargo reserve build assumptions increase → forward earnings per share estimates fall
    What would break the call: Wells Fargo reports flat charge offs and releases reserves, showing credit trends are not deteriorating.
  4. ▼ C Citigroup — impact -60 · confidence high · horizon immediate · 2nd order
    Weaker capital-markets revenue pressures Citigroup alongside JPMorgan, exposing similar investment-banking operations.
    Chain: JPMorgan markets and banking fees come in light → investors mark down industry capital markets wallet → Citigroup trading and underwriting revenue estimates cut → earnings and book value growth expectations slip
    What would break the call: Citigroup posts double digit markets revenue growth, proving the weakness was firm specific.
  5. ▼ GS Goldman Sachs — impact -58 · confidence high · horizon immediate · 2nd order
    A slowdown in corporate deal activity reduces Goldman Sachs's advisory and trading fees after JPMorgan signals weaker industry revenue.
    Chain: JPMorgan points to slower corporate deal activity → advisory and underwriting pipelines look softer → Goldman Sachs fee revenue estimates decline → shares derate on lower fee visibility
    What would break the call: A large announced merger wave lifts Goldman backlog disclosure, restoring fee growth expectations.
  6. ▼ PNC PNC Financial — impact -55 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 2nd order
    Regional lenders watch deposit costs rise faster than loan yields, squeezing net interest income at PNC.
    Chain: large bank funding cost commentary turns cautious → regional deposit beta assumptions move higher → PNC net interest income guidance looks at risk → regional bank valuations compress together
    What would break the call: PNC guides net interest income higher on fixed rate asset repricing, breaking the margin squeeze story.
  7. ▼ COF Capital One — impact -54 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 2nd order
    Capital One carries heavy card exposure, so the charge-off trends flagged by larger peers lift provision expense.
    Chain: peers flag rising consumer card delinquencies → Capital One charge off expectations move higher → provision expense rises against card revenue → earnings per share estimates fall
    What would break the call: Capital One monthly master trust data shows delinquency rates falling month over month.
  8. ▼ MS Morgan Stanley — impact -52 · confidence high · horizon weeks · 2nd order
    Falling financial valuations reduce Morgan Stanley's asset-based fees and institutional securities revenue.
    Chain: bank miss drags financial asset prices lower → wealth management fee base shrinks with markets → Morgan Stanley asset based fees decline → institutional securities revenue estimates follow lower
    What would break the call: Morgan Stanley reports record net new assets and rising fee based flows despite the market move.
  9. ▼ SCHW Schwab — impact -50 · confidence low · horizon weeks · 3rd order
    Schwab trading commission revenue decreases when JPMorgan miss creates market uncertainty and lower investor activity.
    Chain: bank miss raises uncertainty about rate path → client cash sorting and trading behavior shift → Schwab trading revenue and deposit spreads move → earnings estimates adjust lower
    What would break the call: Schwab monthly activity report shows trading volumes and client cash balances both rising.
  10. ▼ USB US Bancorp — impact -50 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 2nd order
    Fee businesses such as payments and trust slow when corporate and consumer transaction activity softens.
    Chain: JPMorgan flags softer consumer and corporate activity → payment and trust transaction volumes slow → US Bancorp noninterest fee income growth stalls → revenue guidance reset follows
    What would break the call: US Bancorp reports accelerating payments fee growth, showing transaction volume is holding up.
  11. ▲ VIRT Virtu Financial — impact +48 · confidence low · horizon immediate · 2nd order
    Virtu earns wider spreads and higher fill volumes when equity volatility rises around disappointing large bank results.
    Chain: disappointing bank results raise equity volatility → bid ask spreads widen across venues → Virtu market making capture per share rises → adjusted net trading income increases
    What would break the call: Volatility fades within days and average daily volumes return to subdued levels.
  12. ▼ V Visa — impact -45 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 3rd order
    Visa network volume growth slows following JPMorgan miss that flags potential consumer spending contraction.
    Chain: JPMorgan commentary points to weaker consumer spending → card purchase volume growth decelerates → Visa payments volume and cross border growth slow → service and data processing revenue growth eases
    What would break the call: Visa reports payments volume growth in line with prior quarters and reaffirms guidance.
  13. ▼ XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund — impact -45 · confidence low · horizon immediate · 2nd order
    The fund holds large bank weights, so a bellwether earnings miss drags the whole sector basket lower.
    Chain: JPMorgan is a top fund holding → bank miss triggers sector wide derating → fund net asset value falls → outflows add further selling pressure
    What would break the call: Insurers and asset managers rally enough to offset bank declines within the index.
  14. ▲ CME CME Group — impact +45 · confidence low · horizon immediate · 2nd order
    CME clears more rate futures as investors reposition after a major bank signals softer lending and fee income.
    Chain: bank miss shifts rate and growth expectations → investors reposition interest rate futures exposure → CME average daily volume rises → clearing and transaction fee revenue increases
    What would break the call: Monthly CME volume report shows rate complex average daily volume falling.
  15. ▲ COIN Coinbase — impact +45 · confidence low · horizon weeks · 3rd order
    Coinbase trading volumes increase when JPMorgan miss encourages shifts toward cryptocurrency as financial alternative.
    Chain: bank weakness pressures confidence in traditional finance → some capital rotates toward crypto assets → Coinbase trading volume and volatility rise → transaction revenue increases
    What would break the call: Crypto prices fall with equities and Coinbase volumes decline, showing correlated risk off behavior.
  16. ▼ ALLY Ally Financial — impact -42 · confidence low · horizon weeks · 2nd order
    Ally concentrates in subprime heavy auto lending, so consumer credit deterioration flagged by peers raises its provision expense.
    Chain: peers flag weakening consumer credit trends → auto loan loss assumptions rise → Ally provision expense increases → earnings per share estimates fall
    What would break the call: Ally reports retail auto net charge offs below guidance and tightens its credit mix.
  17. ▲ CBOE Cboe Global Markets — impact +42 · confidence low · horizon immediate · 2nd order
    Volatility hedging demand lifts index options volume, raising transaction fees across Cboe proprietary products.
    Chain: bank miss increases hedging demand for equity risk → index options volume rises on proprietary products → Cboe transaction fees per contract increase → revenue less cost of revenue grows
    What would break the call: Cboe monthly volume data shows index options average daily volume declining.
  18. ▼ TFC Truist Financial — impact -40 · confidence low · horizon immediate · 2nd order
    Truist depends on net interest income from commercial lending, so peer deposit cost pressure resets its margin outlook.
    Chain: large bank flags deposit repricing pressure → regional margin assumptions revised lower → Truist net interest income estimates decline → shares trade down with the group
    What would break the call: Truist guides net interest income higher on asset repricing and deposit costs stabilize.
  19. ▲ PLD Prologis — impact +40 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 3rd order
    Prologis leasing prices improve after JPMorgan miss signals economic conditions that favor lower borrowing rates.
    Chain: weak bank results support expectations of lower rates → long term yields and cap rates ease → Prologis financing cost and asset values improve → funds from operations outlook strengthens
    What would break the call: Long term Treasury yields rise after the print and industrial vacancy keeps climbing.
  20. ▼ BLK BlackRock — impact -37 · confidence medium · horizon weeks · 3rd order
    Financial-market declines reduce BlackRock's fee base as JPMorgan's miss prompts equity-fund withdrawals.
    Chain: bank miss pushes equity indices lower → assets under management mark down with markets → BlackRock base fee revenue declines → earnings estimates move lower
    What would break the call: BlackRock reports record quarterly net inflows and rising assets under management despite market weakness.
  21. ▲ AEM Agnico Eagle — impact +36 · confidence low · horizon weeks · 3rd order
    Agnico sells each produced ounce into a stronger bullion market as capital rotates toward hard assets.
    Chain: financial sector stress raises safe haven demand → gold price rises with rate cut expectations → Agnico realizes higher price per ounce sold → margin per ounce and cash flow expand
    What would break the call: Gold falls as the dollar strengthens and real yields rise after the bank print.
  22. ▼ MA Mastercard — impact -35 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 3rd order
    Mastercard payment transaction revenue falls short when economic signals from JPMorgan miss curb purchase volumes.
    Chain: bank commentary signals softer consumer purchase activity → card network transaction counts decelerate → Mastercard gross dollar volume growth slows → net revenue growth guidance eases
    What would break the call: Mastercard reaffirms high single digit net revenue growth with stable switched transaction trends.
  23. ▲ NEE NextEra Energy — impact +35 · confidence medium · horizon quarters · 3rd order
    Softer rate expectations lower NextEra's financing costs, making renewable backlog investment cheaper.
    Chain: weak bank results push rate cut expectations higher → Treasury yields and credit spreads decline → NextEra debt and tax equity funding costs fall → project returns on renewable backlog improve
    What would break the call: Treasury yields climb on inflation data and NextEra financing costs rise instead.
  24. ▲ GLD SPDR Gold Shares — impact +35 · confidence low · horizon weeks · 3rd order
    Financial sector stress and lower rate expectations push investors into bullion, lifting the trust price per share.
    Chain: bank miss raises financial system concern → rate cut expectations increase → gold spot price rises → trust share price tracks bullion higher
    What would break the call: The dollar strengthens and real yields rise, sending gold lower despite bank weakness.

Sources

More

Related scenarios

Stocks in this scenario

JPM · BAC · WFC · C · GS · PNC · COF · MS · SCHW · USB · VIRT · V · XLF · CME · COIN · ALLY · CBOE · TFC · PLD · BLK · AEM · MA · NEE · GLD · TSLA · TW · NEM · MCO · IBKR · STT · DUK · KO · NTRS

News events · All scenarios · Pricing · Track record · Methodology · Map your own scenario