What if… Fed raises interest rates again in 2026

◇ Hypothetical scenario. What if… Fed raises interest rates again in 2026? The analysis positions IBKR, BAC and SCHW to benefit and RKT, AMZN and DHI under pressure; confidence low.

Hypothetical scenario — this analysis maps conditional exposure (“if this happens, who is exposed”). It is not graded against market prices unless the event occurs.

Analyzed 2026-09-30 — point-in-time, never revised. A hypothetical scenario is never graded.

Ranked exposures

  1. ▲ IBKR Interactive Brokers — impact +82 · confidence low · horizon immediate
    Interactive Brokers earns more on segregated client cash balances as higher policy rates lift net interest income per account.
  2. ▼ RKT Rocket — impact -81 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
    Rocket Companies loses mortgage origination revenue as higher borrowing costs eliminate refinancing demand.
  3. ▼ AMZN Amazon — impact -80 · confidence low · horizon quarters
    Amazon e-commerce growth slows as higher rates lead to reduced consumer spending on nonessential items.
  4. ▼ DHI DR Horton — impact -78 · confidence high · horizon weeks
    D.R. Horton sells fewer homes as higher mortgage rates reduce buyer affordability.
  5. ▼ UPST Upstart — impact -76 · confidence low · horizon weeks
    Upstart's funding partners demand higher yields, which shrinks approval rates and loan volume across its personal lending marketplace.
  6. ▲ BAC Bank of America — impact +75 · confidence low · horizon immediate
    Bank of America customer deposit spreads widen materially once the central bank implements higher interest rates.
  7. ▼ LEN Lennar — impact -74 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
    Lennar absorbs higher buyer incentives as elevated mortgage rates weaken affordability for new-home buyers.
  8. ▲ SCHW Schwab — impact +70 · confidence high · horizon immediate
    Charles Schwab expands net interest income as client sweep deposits reprice slower than asset yields after rate increases.
  9. ▼ AFRM Affirm — impact -68 · confidence low · horizon quarters
    Affirm pays more to warehouse and securitize receivables, squeezing revenue less transaction costs on each installment loan.
  10. ▼ CCL Carnival — impact -67 · confidence low · horizon weeks
    Carnival pays more to refinance debt while higher consumer borrowing costs constrain discretionary cruise spending.
  11. ▼ CVNA Carvana — impact -66 · confidence low · horizon quarters
    Carvana faces pricier floor plan and securitization funding while loan rates deter buyers of financed used vehicles.
  12. ▼ AAPL Apple — impact -65 · confidence low · horizon quarters
    Apple iPhone sales volumes fall because higher interest rates raise the cost of consumer financing options.
  13. ▼ PLD Prologis — impact -64 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
    Prologis faces higher financing costs as rising interest rates pressure property values.
  14. ▼ TSLA Tesla — impact -64 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
    Tesla sells fewer vehicles as higher auto-loan payments reduce affordability for customers.
  15. ▲ TRV Travelers — impact +63 · confidence low · horizon quarters
    Travelers reinvests premium float into higher yielding bonds, raising net investment income without taking extra underwriting risk.
  16. ▼ VZ Verizon — impact -61 · confidence low · horizon quarters
    Verizon incurs higher refinancing costs on its large debt balance, reducing free cash flow available for dividends.
  17. ▲ CME CME Group — impact +61 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
    CME Group earns more from customer collateral when short-term policy rates increase.
  18. ▲ STT State Street — impact +61 · confidence low · horizon quarters
    State Street reinvests maturing securities at higher yields, lifting net interest income from sticky institutional client deposits.
  19. ▼ F Ford — impact -60 · confidence low · horizon weeks
    Ford new car sales volumes drop as customer loan rates increase following the Fed policy change.
  20. ▼ O Realty Income — impact -60 · confidence low · horizon quarters
    Cap rates rise with bond yields, raising cost of capital and slowing accretive net lease property acquisitions.
  21. ▲ C Citigroup — impact +60 · confidence low · horizon weeks
    Citigroup loan portfolio generates increased net interest income following another round of rate hikes.
  22. ▼ RIVN Rivian — impact -58 · confidence low · horizon quarters
    Rivian's cash burn costs more to finance while steep auto loan rates deter buyers of premium electric trucks.
  23. ▲ JPM JPMorgan — impact +58 · confidence high · horizon immediate
    JPMorgan earns wider net interest margins because floating-rate assets reprice faster than deposit costs after policy rate increases.
  24. ▼ NEE NextEra — impact -55 · confidence high · horizon quarters
    NextEra Energy faces higher interest expense as debt-funded renewable projects become more expensive to finance.

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Stocks in this scenario

IBKR · RKT · AMZN · DHI · UPST · BAC · LEN · SCHW · AFRM · CCL · CVNA · AAPL · PLD · TSLA · TRV · VZ · CME · STT · F · O · C · RIVN · JPM · NEE · HD · AMT · PGR · GS · BLK · ICE · VIRT · ORCL · MET · AFL · NFLX · TGT

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