Lockheed Martin wins up to $1.2 billion US Army missile contract

Lockheed Martin wins up to $1.2 billion US Army missile contract: the analysis positions LMT, LHX and NOC to benefit and RTX, GD and LDOS under pressure; confidence high.

Analyzed 2026-09-22 — point-in-time, never revised. Outcomes are scored against SPY and published either way.

Ranked exposures

▲ LMT Lockheed Martin — impact +78 · confidence high · horizon quarters · 1st order
The Army missile award increases Lockheed Martin's PrSM production, driving Missiles and Fire Control revenue through higher factory utilization.
Chain: Army awards PrSM Increment 2 production contract → Lockheed books up to 1.2 billion backlog → Camden and Troy missile lines raise output → Missiles and Fire Control revenue and margin rise
What would break the call: Army restructures or descopes PrSM Increment 2 funding in a future budget request, cutting planned quantities.
▼ RTX Raytheon — impact -60 · confidence medium · horizon immediate · 1st order
Losing the Army missile award reduces RTX revenue by surrendering share of tactical missile spending to a rival integrator.
Chain: Army selects a competing prime for PrSM → RTX misses this tactical missile production line → Raytheon segment backlog forgoes the award value → Share of Army precision fires shifts away
What would break the call: RTX lands a large Patriot or SM-6 follow-on award that more than offsets the lost Army line.
▲ LHX L3Harris — impact +46 · confidence medium · horizon quarters · 2nd order
Higher Army missile production increases L3Harris revenue by raising Aerojet Rocketdyne propulsion volumes.
Chain: Missile production rates step higher for PrSM → Solid rocket motor demand increases across suppliers → Aerojet Rocketdyne books propulsion subcontract volume → L3Harris aerojet segment revenue and utilization rise
What would break the call: Lockheed sources PrSM Increment 2 motors internally or from Northrop, bypassing Aerojet entirely.
▲ NOC Northrop Grumman — impact +45 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 2nd order
Northrop Grumman produces competing solid propulsion and fuzing hardware, gaining subcontract orders as Army missile production rates step higher.
Chain: Army missile quantities rise under new contract → Prime buys solid propulsion and fuzing hardware → Northrop propulsion systems receives subcontract orders → Defense Systems segment sales increase modestly
What would break the call: Supplier selection documents show Northrop holds no propulsion content on the PrSM Increment 2 line.
▲ MOG.A Moog — impact +42 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 2nd order
Moog sells actuation and flight control components for tactical missiles, so larger production lots lift its space and defense sales.
Chain: Higher missile build rates at prime contractor → Demand rises for control actuation systems → Moog ships more fin actuators per lot → Space and Defense segment sales increase
What would break the call: The prime qualifies a second actuation source and splits the buy away from Moog.
▲ BA Boeing — impact +40 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 2nd order
Boeing builds the PAC-3 seeker and related assemblies, so expanded Lockheed missile deliveries increase its defense component shipments.
Chain: Lockheed missile output expands across programs → Boeing supplies seekers and missile assemblies → Component shipment volumes rise for Boeing Defense → Defense Space and Security revenue ticks higher
What would break the call: Boeing holds no content on PrSM, and Army funding shifts away from PAC-3 quantities.
▲ KTOS Kratos — impact +38 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 2nd order
Kratos manufactures propulsion and target systems, and broader Army missile funding pulls more subsystem orders into its backlog.
Chain: Army precision fires budget grows overall → Prime and government order more propulsion and targets → Kratos books subsystem and target work → Kratos defense segment backlog expands
What would break the call: Kratos reports flat defense bookings and no propulsion content tied to Army tactical missiles.
▲ CW Curtiss-Wright — impact +36 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 2nd order
Curtiss-Wright ships sensors and electronic controls into missile programs, adding content revenue as Army order quantities rise.
Chain: Missile production quantities increase for the Army → Demand rises for sensors and electronic controls → Curtiss-Wright ships more embedded computing content → Defense electronics segment revenue increases
What would break the call: Program bill of materials shows no Curtiss-Wright content and defense electronics bookings stay flat.
▲ APH Amphenol — impact +35 · confidence low · horizon weeks · 3rd order
Amphenol connector sales volume rises after the new missile program requirements increase.
Chain: Missile builds increase across the supply chain → Subsystem suppliers order more ruggedized interconnect → Amphenol military aerospace connector volume rises → Harsh environment segment sales grow slightly
What would break the call: Commercial and datacenter demand dominates results, leaving defense connector volume immaterial to reported growth.
▼ GD General Dynamics — impact -32 · confidence medium · horizon weeks · 3rd order
Army missile procurement shifts dollars away from General Dynamics' ground vehicle and ammunition businesses after its selection loss.
Chain: Army budget tilts toward long range fires → Ground vehicle and ammunition accounts face pressure → General Dynamics combat systems orders soften → Combat Systems revenue growth slows
What would break the call: Army budget grows enough to fund both missiles and vehicles, keeping Combat Systems awards on trend.
▲ MRCY Mercury Systems — impact +30 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 2nd order
Mercury supplies mission computing and RF subsystems for guided weapons, so higher missile build rates lift its defense electronics shipments.
Chain: Army missile production quantities increase → Guided weapon electronics demand rises → Mercury books processing and RF subsystem orders → Defense electronics revenue and backlog grow
What would break the call: Mercury discloses no content on Army tactical missile programs and bookings stay flat.
▲ TDY Teledyne — impact +30 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 2nd order
Teledyne Technologies defense electronics revenue climbs from supplying parts to the missile program.
Chain: Missile production quantities rise for the Army → Guidance and imaging component demand increases → Teledyne ships more defense electronics content → Digital imaging and instruments sales rise
What would break the call: Teledyne guidance cites no incremental defense electronics demand from Army munitions programs.
▲ HEI HEICO — impact +26 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 3rd order
HEICO's electronic technologies group supplies missile electronics and power products, gaining shipments as production quantities expand.
Chain: Army missile build rates increase → Subsystem makers order more power and electronic parts → HEICO Electronic Technologies shipments rise → Segment revenue and margin improve slightly
What would break the call: HEICO defense electronics sales stay flat while commercial aftermarket drives all reported growth.
▲ HON Honeywell — impact +25 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 2nd order
Honeywell missile guidance systems generate additional revenue after the recent contract award.
Chain: Guided missile production quantities increase → Demand rises for inertial guidance units → Honeywell ships more navigation hardware → Aerospace defense revenue increases modestly
What would break the call: The program uses a competing navigation supplier, leaving Honeywell defense shipments unchanged.
▲ TDG TransDigm — impact +24 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 3rd order
TransDigm's proprietary actuators and valves carry high margins, and rising missile builds add defense component volume.
Chain: Missile production volumes step higher → Actuator and valve content demand increases → TransDigm proprietary defense parts ship in volume → High margin defense OEM sales rise
What would break the call: TransDigm defense OEM bookings stay flat, showing no content on Army munitions programs.
▼ LDOS Leidos — impact -22 · confidence medium · horizon quarters · 3rd order
The Army's missile award shrinks Leidos's contract pipeline as missile hardware spending bypasses its services business.
Chain: Army funds hardware procurement over services → Advisory and integration task orders face pressure → Leidos Army pipeline growth slows → Defense solutions revenue growth moderates
What would break the call: Leidos wins large Army digital modernization recompetes, keeping defense solutions bookings growing.
▼ AVAV AeroVironment — impact -22 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 3rd order
AeroVironment's loitering munitions compete for the same precision fires budget line that this guided missile buy absorbs.
Chain: Precision fires budget absorbed by guided missiles → Loitering munition accounts compete for same dollars → AeroVironment Army order flow softens → Loitering munitions segment revenue growth slows
What would break the call: Army raises Switchblade and LASSO quantities in the next budget, lifting AeroVironment orders anyway.
▲ ATI ATI — impact +22 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 3rd order
ATI supplies titanium and specialty alloys used in rocket motor cases, so higher missile output increases its mill volumes.
Chain: Missile production rates rise for the Army → Rocket motor cases require specialty alloys → ATI mill orders for titanium increase → High performance materials volumes and pricing rise
What would break the call: Missile structures use composite cases sourced elsewhere, leaving ATI defense mill volumes unchanged.
▲ CRS Carpenter Technology — impact +20 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 3rd order
Carpenter melts specialty steels and alloys for rocket motor cases and warheads, gaining mill volume as missile production scales.
Chain: Higher missile output across primes → Specialty alloy demand for cases increases → Carpenter mill order book fills → Specialty alloys operations revenue rises
What would break the call: Munitions alloy demand stays a rounding error while aerospace destocking drives Carpenter volumes lower.
▼ TXT Textron — impact -18 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 3rd order
Textron Systems competes for Army precision fires work and misses revenue from this specific production award.
Chain: Army selects a rival for precision fires production → Textron Systems misses this production award → Army weapons pipeline opportunity narrows → Textron Systems revenue growth stays flat
What would break the call: Textron wins a separate Army unmanned or weapons program that replaces the forgone revenue.
▲ HXL Hexcel — impact +18 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 3rd order
Hexcel composites are used in missile airframes and motor cases, so higher tactical missile output raises its defense material volumes.
Chain: Missile production rates rise → Composite airframe and case demand increases → Hexcel ships more carbon fiber prepreg → Defense materials sales increase modestly
What would break the call: Program structures use metallic cases, leaving Hexcel defense material volumes unchanged.
▲ WWD Woodward — impact +18 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 2nd order
Woodward supplies actuation and control hardware for guided weapons, so larger missile production lots raise its defense segment volume.
Chain: Missile build rates increase → Control actuation content demand rises → Woodward ships more defense actuators → Aerospace defense sales increase modestly
What would break the call: Woodward guidance shows defense OEM sales flat with no guided weapon content increase.
▼ OSK Oshkosh — impact -16 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 3rd order
Oshkosh Defense competes for Army dollars that shift into munitions accounts, trimming its vehicle order prospects.
Chain: Army procurement dollars shift into munitions accounts → Tactical vehicle funding faces budget competition → Oshkosh Defense order prospects narrow → Defense segment revenue growth slows
What would break the call: Army funds a large tactical vehicle recapitalization, restoring Oshkosh Defense order growth.
▼ BAH Booz Allen Hamilton — impact -14 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 3rd order
Booz Allen depends on advisory budgets that shrink when Army funds shift toward hardware procurement.
Chain: Army prioritizes hardware procurement accounts → Consulting and advisory budgets face trimming → Booz Allen task order awards slow → Civil and defense services revenue growth moderates
What would break the call: Booz Allen reports rising defense book to bill driven by AI and cyber task orders.

Sources

What happened

Horizon	Verdict	Top pick	Excess vs SPY
1 trading days	Mixed	LMT	-2.4% vs SPY
5 trading days	Mixed	LMT	-2.2% vs SPY

Related scenarios

Stocks in this scenario

LMT · RTX · LHX · NOC · MOG.A · BA · KTOS · CW · APH · GD · MRCY · TDY · HEI · HON · TDG · LDOS · AVAV · ATI · CRS · TXT · HXL · WWD · OSK · BAH · CACI · SAIC · HII

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