What if… Indiana enacts data center moratorium by June 30, 2027

◇ Hypothetical scenario. What if… Indiana enacts data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? The analysis positions CORZ, DLR and CEG to benefit and AES, NI and GOOGL under pressure; confidence medium.

Hypothetical scenario — this analysis maps conditional exposure (“if this happens, who is exposed”). It is not graded against market prices unless the event occurs.

Analyzed 2026-10-14 — point-in-time, never revised. A hypothetical scenario is never graded.

Ranked exposures

  1. ▼ AES AES — impact -64 · confidence medium · horizon quarters · 1st order
    Indiana's moratorium eliminates AES electricity sales growth from data centers and weakens regulated earnings by limiting rate base expansion.
    Chain: Indiana bans new data center development → AES Indiana loses signed large-load customers → forecast retail megawatt-hour sales growth falls → regulators approve smaller capital plan → rate base and regulated earnings growth slow
    What would break the call: Existing signed AES Indiana contracts are grandfathered, preserving the load forecast and the approved capital plan.
  2. ▼ NI NiSource — impact -59 · confidence medium · horizon quarters · 1st order
    Indiana's moratorium voids NiSource's large-load contracts, removing demand that supports its planned capital spending increase.
    Chain: moratorium blocks new Indiana large loads → NIPSCO large-load tariff contracts lapse → projected electric volume growth disappears → capital spending increase loses regulatory support → earnings per share growth rate resets lower
    What would break the call: Projects already under construction are exempted, letting NIPSCO keep its contracted load and its raised capital plan.
  3. ▲ CORZ Core Scientific — impact +56 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 2nd order
    Core Scientific gains leverage in AI hosting contracts because Indiana's moratorium removes prospective regional capacity from the competing supply pipeline.
    Chain: Indiana supply pipeline removed from market → national powered shell capacity tightens → hyperscalers bid for existing energized sites → Core Scientific hosting contracts price higher
    What would break the call: Texas or Ohio approvals release large new powered capacity, offsetting the lost Indiana pipeline within months.
  4. ▲ DLR Digital Realty — impact +55 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 2nd order
    Digital Realty gains pricing power as blocked Indiana capacity tightens national supply, lifting renewal rents across existing Midwest campuses.
    Chain: Indiana capacity blocked by moratorium → Midwest available supply tightens further → tenants compete for existing leasable megawatts → Digital Realty renewal rents and cash spreads rise
    What would break the call: Hyperscaler capital spending guidance is cut, softening leasing demand and capping renewal spreads regardless of supply.
  5. ▼ GOOGL Alphabet — impact -54 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 1st order
    Alphabet faces delayed Google Cloud buildout after Indiana restrictions prevent additional data center development and defer associated computing capacity.
    Chain: Indiana blocks new campus permits → Google Fort Wayne area expansion halts → cloud capacity delivery dates slip → compute constrained cloud revenue growth → higher cost sites absorb redirected spend
    What would break the call: The moratorium exempts announced projects, allowing Google to finish its Indiana campus on schedule.
  6. ▼ AMZN Amazon — impact -53 · confidence medium · horizon quarters · 1st order
    Indiana's moratorium reduces Amazon's AWS infrastructure investment by blocking new campuses needed for cloud and artificial intelligence capacity growth.
    Chain: Indiana prohibits new data center builds → AWS Indiana campus phases cancelled → planned megawatt additions move to other states → longer lead times for AI capacity → AWS revenue growth constrained by supply
    What would break the call: AWS secures grandfathered status for its New Carlisle campus, keeping delivery schedules intact.
  7. ▼ META Meta — impact -50 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 1st order
    Meta must relocate future computing campuses to other states, increasing development lead times and infrastructure costs for AI workloads.
    Chain: moratorium stops new Indiana siting → Meta relocates planned AI campuses → permitting and interconnection timelines lengthen → development and power costs per megawatt rise
    What would break the call: Meta announces a replacement campus in Ohio or Louisiana with equal cost and timeline.
  8. ▲ CEG Constellation — impact +50 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 2nd order
    Constellation captures diverted hyperscaler power contracts at nuclear plants in Pennsylvania and Illinois, raising contracted prices and volumes.
    Chain: Indiana removes available siting capacity → hyperscalers redirect load to PJM nuclear sites → Constellation negotiates from tighter supply position → contracted power prices and volumes rise
    What would break the call: FERC or PJM restricts co-located load arrangements, blocking the contracts Constellation needs to capture diverted demand.
  9. ▲ CRWV CoreWeave — impact +48 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 2nd order
    CoreWeave can price scarce GPU cloud capacity more favorably as cancelled Indiana campuses reduce available infrastructure for AI workloads.
    Chain: Indiana campus pipeline removed → AI infrastructure supply tightens nationally → GPU cloud capacity becomes scarcer → CoreWeave contract pricing and duration improve
    What would break the call: GPU supply outpaces data center shells, making compute rather than power the binding constraint on pricing.
  10. ▼ AEP American Electric Power — impact -45 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 1st order
    American Electric Power cannot serve LaPorte County hyperscaler load, erasing revenue from signed large-load tariffs.
    Chain: moratorium blocks LaPorte County hyperscaler site → Indiana Michigan Power large-load tariff unused → forecast industrial sales growth falls → transmission and generation investment deferred
    What would break the call: The moratorium carves out projects with executed tariff agreements, preserving AEP's LaPorte County load.
  11. ▲ EQIX Equinix — impact +45 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 2nd order
    Equinix fills existing Chicago and Midwest halls faster because tenants locked out of Indiana bid for scarce ready capacity.
    Chain: Indiana blocked as alternative Midwest region → tenants concentrate demand on Chicago metro → Equinix existing halls absorb overflow → utilization and interconnection revenue rise
    What would break the call: Chicago power constraints prevent Equinix from energizing additional capacity, capping the volume upside.
  12. ▼ MSFT Microsoft — impact -44 · confidence medium · horizon quarters · 1st order
    Indiana's moratorium slows Microsoft's Azure capacity expansion by blocking new data centers and forcing investment into less prepared locations.
    Chain: Indiana prohibits new data center construction → Microsoft Indiana campus phases halted → Azure capacity additions shift to slower regions → AI capacity delivery slips by quarters
    What would break the call: Microsoft leases third party Midwest capacity quickly, offsetting the Indiana delay with no schedule slip.
  13. ▼ FIX Comfort Systems — impact -44 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 2nd order
    Comfort Systems drops Indiana mechanical and electrical contracts, removing high-margin data center work from its backlog.
    Chain: Indiana data center projects cancelled → mechanical and electrical scopes never awarded → Comfort Systems backlog loses high margin work → segment revenue and gross margin decline
    What would break the call: Comfort Systems redeploys the same crews to Ohio or Texas data center awards within one quarter.
  14. ▲ TLN Talen Energy — impact +44 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 2nd order
    Talen markets Susquehanna capacity to customers who lose Indiana sites, strengthening its negotiating position on co-located load.
    Chain: Indiana siting option removed for tenants → PJM nuclear co-location demand intensifies → Talen negotiates Susquehanna capacity from strength → contracted power price per megawatt rises
    What would break the call: Regulators restrict behind the meter co-location, removing Talen's premium contracting structure.
  15. ▲ VST Vistra — impact +43 · confidence medium · horizon quarters · 2nd order
    Data center relocation to Texas increases Vistra's power demand and supply contracts as developers reroute megawatt needs from Indiana.
    Chain: Indiana moratorium pushes developers elsewhere → ERCOT sites gain relative siting speed → Vistra signs more large-load supply deals → retail and wholesale volumes rise
    What would break the call: ERCOT imposes new large-load interconnection restrictions, blunting Texas as the relocation destination.
  16. ▼ DUK Duke Energy — impact -42 · confidence medium · horizon quarters · 1st order
    Indiana's moratorium eliminates Duke Energy's anticipated data center load growth and limits regulated rate base expansion.
    Chain: Indiana bars new large data center loads → Duke Energy Indiana load forecast cut → generation and transmission investment deferred → regulated rate base growth slows
    What would break the call: Duke shifts the deferred capital into Carolinas and Florida programs, holding consolidated rate base growth steady.
  17. ▲ APLD Applied Digital — impact +42 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 2nd order
    Applied Digital sells North Dakota capacity at firmer prices because tenants face fewer available Midwest sites.
    Chain: Midwest siting options narrow after moratorium → tenants evaluate North Dakota alternatives → Applied Digital leasing competition decreases → lease rates per megawatt firm up
    What would break the call: Applied Digital faces financing or construction delays, preventing it from delivering capacity into the tighter market.
  18. ▲ SO Southern Company — impact +40 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 2nd order
    Southern adds Georgia large-load interconnection requests redirected from Indiana, expanding rate base and regulated earnings growth.
    Chain: Indiana closes to new hyperscaler siting → developers file Georgia interconnection requests → Georgia Power load forecast rises → approved rate base and earnings expand
    What would break the call: Georgia regulators impose their own large-load restrictions or cost allocation rules that deter new requests.
  19. ▼ PWR Quanta Services — impact -39 · confidence medium · horizon weeks · 2nd order
    Indiana's moratorium reduces Quanta Services' backlog by cancelling substation and transmission projects supporting planned data center campuses.
    Chain: Indiana campuses cancelled by moratorium → associated substation and transmission scopes dropped → utility capital plans trimmed in Indiana → Quanta backlog and revenue decline
    What would break the call: Utilities in neighboring states accelerate transmission spending, replacing the lost Indiana backlog quickly.
  20. ▼ STRL Sterling Infrastructure — impact -38 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 2nd order
    Sterling Infrastructure's e-infrastructure segment loses Indiana site development work, lowering revenue and segment margin.
    Chain: Indiana site development projects halted → grading and foundation scopes never awarded → Sterling e-infrastructure bookings fall → segment revenue and margin decline
    What would break the call: Sterling wins replacement data center site work in Texas or the Southeast within two quarters.
  21. ▲ ETR Entergy — impact +38 · confidence low · horizon quarters
    Entergy wins additional Louisiana and Mississippi campus commitments, funding generation investment that raises regulated revenue.
  22. ▼ CNP CenterPoint Energy — impact -36 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
    Indiana's moratorium removes CenterPoint's prospective commercial customers and weakens demand for infrastructure investment.
  23. ▼ ETN Eaton — impact -36 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
    Indiana's moratorium reduces Eaton electrical equipment orders because cancelled data centers need fewer switchgear and power distribution systems.
  24. ▼ EME EMCOR — impact -36 · confidence low · horizon quarters
    EMCOR faces cancelled Indiana electrical installation projects, which slows growth in its fastest expanding end market.

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AES · NI · CORZ · DLR · GOOGL · AMZN · META · CEG · CRWV · AEP · EQIX · MSFT · FIX · TLN · VST · DUK · APLD · SO · PWR · STRL · ETR · CNP · ETN · EME · NBIS · NRG · VRT · D · SRE · IREN · LNT · LLY · GM · PLD · GEV · MTZ

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