What if… Fed cuts interest rates by 100 bps

◇ Hypothetical scenario. What if… Fed cuts interest rates by 100 bps? The analysis positions RKT, DHI and LEN to benefit and SCHW, BAC and CFR under pressure; confidence low.

Hypothetical scenario — this analysis maps conditional exposure (“if this happens, who is exposed”). It is not graded against market prices unless the event occurs.

Analyzed 2026-09-18 — point-in-time, never revised. A hypothetical scenario is never graded.

Ranked exposures

  1. ▲ RKT Rocket Companies — impact +90 · confidence low · horizon immediate
    Mortgage refinancing applications surge as lower borrowing costs revive residential loan origination volumes across the nation.
  2. ▼ SCHW Charles Schwab — impact -87 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
    Lower rates reduce Charles Schwab's interest income as client cash and sweep balances reprice downward.
  3. ▲ DHI DR Horton — impact +86 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
    Lower mortgage rates improve housing affordability and expand D.R. Horton's new-home orders and backlogs.
  4. ▼ BAC Bank of America — impact -85 · confidence low · horizon immediate
    Bank of America faces compressed asset yields on floating rate debt securities and commercial lending balances.
  5. ▲ LEN Lennar — impact +84 · confidence low · horizon weeks
    Lennar captures lower mortgage rates as monthly payments decline, increasing qualified buyers and new home orders.
  6. ▲ AMT American Tower — impact +82 · confidence low · horizon immediate
    Lower benchmark rates reduce financing costs for American Tower, supporting tower acquisitions, refinancing and higher property valuations.
  7. ▲ UPST Upstart — impact +82 · confidence low · horizon weeks
    Upstart evaluates higher borrower qualification rates and expands credit approval volumes across its bank partner network.
  8. ▼ CFR Cullen/Frost Bankers — impact -80 · confidence low · horizon immediate
    Asset yields on unhedged commercial loan books repricing downward compress the lender core net margin.
  9. ▲ CVNA Carvana — impact +80 · confidence low · horizon weeks
    Vehicle sales conversion rates increase as consumer auto loan financing rates drop substantially across retail platforms.
  10. ▼ NTRS Northern Trust — impact -75 · confidence low · horizon weeks
    Custody asset management fees and interest margins on short duration deposits compress rapidly under lower yields.
  11. ▲ PLD Prologis — impact +74 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
    Lower refinancing costs improve Prologis's development economics and cash flow, supporting warehouse acquisitions and construction.
  12. ▲ NEE NextEra Energy — impact +68 · confidence low · horizon quarters
    NextEra Energy lowers borrowing costs for massive clean energy infrastructure projects and boosts overall equity valuation.
  13. ▼ PRU Prudential Financial — impact -67 · confidence low · horizon quarters
    Prudential sees lower overall investment spread income on fixed annuity products and retirement account assets.
  14. ▼ JPM JPMorgan Chase — impact -65 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
    Lower rates narrow JPMorgan Chase's net interest margins as variable loan yields reset faster than deposit costs.
  15. ▼ MET MetLife — impact -65 · confidence low · horizon quarters
    MetLife earns smaller reinvestment yields on newly deployed premiums across fixed income investment portfolios.
  16. ▲ SPG Simon Property Group — impact +65 · confidence low · horizon quarters
    Lower discount rates reduce capital expenditure costs and enhance valuation multiples for real estate portfolio holdings.
  17. ▲ TROW T. Rowe Price — impact +61 · confidence low · horizon weeks
    T. Rowe Price captures higher management fees when rate cuts lift equity and bond assets across client portfolios.
  18. ▲ PLUG Plug Power — impact +60 · confidence low · horizon quarters
    Cheaper capital access eases corporate funding pressure and accelerates commercial project deployment schedules for hydrogen plants.
  19. ▼ ALLY Ally Financial — impact -59 · confidence low · horizon quarters
    Ally Financial earns less interest on fixed-rate auto loans while its funding costs decline more slowly.
  20. ▲ URI United Rentals — impact +57 · confidence low · horizon quarters
    United Rentals gains as cheaper borrowing supports construction activity, increasing equipment utilization and rental revenue.
  21. ▲ NDAQ Nasdaq — impact +54 · confidence low · horizon weeks
    Nasdaq experiences stronger issuance and trading activity as lower rates revive equity offerings and market participation.
  22. ▼ ALL Allstate — impact -52 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
    Lower bond yields reduce Allstate's investment income as maturing fixed-income holdings are reinvested at weaker rates.
  23. ▼ TRV Travelers — impact -52 · confidence low · horizon quarters
    Travelers earns lower reinvestment income as maturing bond proceeds enter a reduced-rate fixed-income portfolio.
  24. ▼ WFC Wells Fargo — impact -44 · confidence low · horizon quarters
    Wells Fargo experiences lower asset yields, pressuring net interest income before loan growth fully offsets repricing effects.

More

Related scenarios

Stocks in this scenario

RKT · SCHW · DHI · BAC · LEN · AMT · UPST · CFR · CVNA · NTRS · PLD · NEE · PRU · JPM · MET · SPG · TROW · PLUG · ALLY · URI · NDAQ · ALL · TRV · WFC · COST

Community · All scenarios · Pricing · Track record · Methodology · Map your own scenario