Scenarios that move NCLH
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Scenarios that move NCLH: 56 analyses, 9 positive, 47 negative.
- · Iranian Guards say two tankers hit mines in Hormuz — ▼ · impact -48 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · PetroChina set for record trading profit as war upends markets — ▼ · impact -66 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · Trump says US may need to strike Iran's Pickaxe Mountain — ▼ · impact -51 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026 — ▲ · impact +66 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026 — ▼ · impact -42 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Iran and Oman fail to reach a Hormuz agreement — ▼ · impact -54 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Iran and Oman reach Hormuz agreement by October 31 — ▲ · impact +47 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · Iran fortifies nuclear sites ahead of possible US strikes — ▼ · impact -57 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · Saudi Arabia faces new missile and drone attacks — ▼ · impact -39 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… US and Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15 — ▲ · impact +31 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · Iran calls US response to Hormuz reopening proposal insufficient — ▼ · impact -55 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · US military disables cargo vessel breaching Iran blockade — ▼ · impact -48 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… US and Iran ceasefire continues through October 15 — ▲ · impact +55 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · Iran official says illegal Strait of Hormuz routes will soon be blocked — ▼ · impact -53 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Plague outbreak in Russia continues and spreads further — ▼ · impact -45 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · US EIA hikes oil price forecasts as Iran war drains stockpiles — ▼ · impact -67 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Crude oil reaches $150 a barrel — ▼ · impact -72 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · Yemeni government forces seize strategic strait from Houthis — ▲ · impact +36 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Israel accuses Iran proxies over plane stabbing incident by October 31 — ▼ · impact -50 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… US strikes Cuba by December 31 — ▼ · impact -68 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
- · Saudi Arabia plans assault on Houthis to reopen Red Sea — ▼ · impact -42 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · OPEC+ delays oil capacity review as Iran war disrupts plans — ▼ · impact -57 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · US sanctions Iran’s auto and rail sectors as blockade chokes shipping — ▼ · impact -51 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · Projectiles hit three oil tankers in Strait of Hormuz — ▼ · impact -48 · confidence low · horizon quarters
- · Carnival beats Q3 earnings estimates on record revenue and yields — ▲ · impact +70 · confidence high · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by December 31 — ▲ · impact +58 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · Trump rejects Iran peace proposal as oil spikes — ▼ · impact -75 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Trump and Putin fail to hold a meeting — ▼ · impact -44 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · Royal Caribbean nears $3 billion deal for 50% Sandals stake — ▼ · impact -44 · confidence high · horizon quarters
- · ◇ What if… Iran undergoes leadership change by December 31 — ▼ · impact -58 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Iran loses control of Kharg Island by December 31 — ▼ · impact -60 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… NATO and Russia clash militarily by October 31, 2026 — ▼ · impact -74 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… US and Iran fail to hold diplomatic meeting by September 30 — ▼ · impact -51 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31 — ▲ · impact +54 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Iran charges fees for Strait of Hormuz passage by October 31 — ▼ · impact -58 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · ◇ What if… Houthis enter Aden by September 30 — ▼ · impact -51 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · Houthis strike Saudi targets as Hormuz talks stall — ▼ · impact -55 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · Trump says US could stay in Iran and keep oil — ▼ · impact -44 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · Saudi Arabia reports Iraq-launched drones hit East-West pipeline — ▼ · impact -46 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · Iran-US shipping attacks drive oil tanker rates to records — ▼ · impact -60 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Iran withdraws from the NPT before 2027 — ▼ · impact -44 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · Houthis tighten control over strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait — ▼ · impact -63 · confidence low · horizon immediate
- · US EIA raises oil forecasts as Iran war drains stockpiles — ▼ · impact -67 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · Merchant vessels suffer disabling fires in Gulf — ▼ · impact -38 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · Middle East tensions push oil toward $100 as Asia stocks weaken — ▼ · impact -62 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · Iran missile launch at Jordan lifts oil prices — ▼ · impact -59 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
- · Iran says it captured US submarine drone in Strait of Hormuz — ▼ · impact -47 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
- · Iran plans new Gulf exclusion zone and threatens US — ▼ · impact -52 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Iran and Oman reach a Hormuz agreement by September 30 — ▲ · impact +60 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Strait of Hormuz disruption drives crude oil prices 30% higher — ▼ · impact -60 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… Global oil prices reach $150 a barrel — ▼ · impact -66 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · US and allies seek IAEA referral of Iran to UN Security Council — ▼ · impact -45 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · Trump says US may strike Iran's Pickaxe Mountain soon — ▼ · impact -49 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
- · US attack hits Iranian tanker near Kharg Island — ▼ · impact -50 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · Iran fires on Kuwait after reported US wedding attack — ▼ · impact -48 · confidence low · horizon weeks
- · ◇ What if… OPEC announces surprise 2M barrel production cut — ▼ · impact -76 · confidence low · horizon weeks