Scenarios that move FRO

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Scenarios that move FRO: 103 analyses, 71 positive, 32 negative.

  1. · Iranian Guards say two tankers hit mines in Hormuz — ▲ · impact +84 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  2. · PetroChina set for record trading profit as war upends markets — ▲ · impact +70 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  3. · Trump waives many Russia-related sanctions and tariffs under new law — ▼ · impact -68 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  4. · Trump says US may need to strike Iran's Pickaxe Mountain — ▲ · impact +59 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  5. · ◇ What if… Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026 — ▼ · impact -30 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  6. · ◇ What if… Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026 — ▲ · impact +85 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  7. · ◇ What if… Iran and Oman fail to reach a Hormuz agreement — ▲ · impact +68 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  8. · ◇ What if… Benjamin Netanyahu leaves Israel's premiership before 2027 — ▼ · impact -30 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  9. · Iran’s precision strikes damage Gulf infrastructure and blunt US war plans — ▲ · impact +80 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  10. · TotalEnergies flags quarterly profit surge as Iran war lifts energy prices — ▲ · impact +72 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  11. · Container ship sinks near Hormuz after projectile strike — ▲ · impact +75 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  12. · ◇ What if… Iran and Oman reach Hormuz agreement by October 31 — ▼ · impact -68 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  13. · US blockade keeps Iranian crude exports at zero in October — ▲ · impact +76 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  14. · Saudi Arabia leads OPEC+ output increase despite Iran war — ▲ · impact +74 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  15. · ◇ What if… Iran reaches Hormuz agreement as Republicans win Senate — ▼ · impact -70 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  16. · Iran fortifies nuclear sites ahead of possible US strikes — ▲ · impact +68 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  17. · Americas face heavy-oil glut as freight squeeze disrupts trade — ▲ · impact +80 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  18. · Saudi Arabia faces new missile and drone attacks — ▲ · impact +50 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  19. · Airlines cancel Saudi flights after Riyadh airport attacks — ▲ · impact +44 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  20. · ◇ What if… Houthis launch military action against Saudi Arabia on October 15 — ▲ · impact +64 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  21. · ◇ What if… Iran reaches Hormuz agreement as Democrats win Senate — ▼ · impact -76 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  22. · ◇ What if… US and Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15 — ▼ · impact -73 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  23. · Iran calls US response to Hormuz reopening proposal insufficient — ▲ · impact +84 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  24. · US military disables cargo vessel breaching Iran blockade — ▲ · impact +83 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  25. · Three Saudi nationals killed in Riyadh airport attacks — ▲ · impact +35 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  26. · Global stocks and Treasuries fall as Brent tops $102 — ▲ · impact +70 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  27. · ◇ What if… US and Iran ceasefire continues through October 15 — ▼ · impact -65 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  28. · Oil tanker transits through Hormuz fall to two-month low — ▲ · impact +80 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  29. · Iran official says illegal Strait of Hormuz routes will soon be blocked — ▲ · impact +75 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  30. · EU envoys set to approve major new Russia sanctions — ▲ · impact +70 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  31. · US EIA hikes oil price forecasts as Iran war drains stockpiles — ▲ · impact +70 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  32. · ◇ What if… Crude oil reaches $150 a barrel — ▲ · impact +40 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  33. · Yemeni government forces seize strategic strait from Houthis — ▼ · impact -63 · confidence high · horizon weeks
  34. · ◇ What if… Israel accuses Iran proxies over plane stabbing incident by October 31 — ▲ · impact +40 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  35. · ◇ What if… US strikes Cuba by December 31 — ▲ · impact +30 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  36. · Saudi Arabia plans assault on Houthis to reopen Red Sea — ▲ · impact +70 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  37. · OPEC+ delays oil capacity review as Iran war disrupts plans — ▲ · impact +78 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  38. · Putin says Russia will withhold diesel exports until sanctions lifted — ▲ · impact +35 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  39. · ◇ What if… Saudi Arabia restarts East-West oil pipeline by October 15 — ▼ · impact -57 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  40. · US sanctions Iran’s auto and rail sectors as blockade chokes shipping — ▲ · impact +80 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  41. · Projectiles hit three oil tankers in Strait of Hormuz — ▲ · impact +83 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  42. · ◇ What if… US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15 — ▼ · impact -66 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  43. · US to loan up to 40 million barrels from SPR — ▼ · impact -30 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  44. · ◇ What if… Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by December 31 — ▼ · impact -38 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  45. · Trump rejects Iran peace proposal as oil spikes — ▲ · impact +70 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  46. · ◇ What if… Gadi Eizenkot becomes Israel's next prime minister — ▼ · impact -38 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  47. · Vessel traffic through Strait of Hormuz falls to two — ▲ · impact +90 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  48. · ◇ What if… Iran undergoes leadership change by December 31 — ▼ · impact -57 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  49. · Iran offers to reopen Strait of Hormuz if US eases pressure — ▼ · impact -64 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  50. · ◇ What if… Iran loses control of Kharg Island by December 31 — ▲ · impact +70 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  51. · ◇ What if… US and Iran ceasefire continues through September 30 — ▼ · impact -62 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  52. · ◇ What if… Delcy Rodríguez leads Venezuela at end of 2026 — ▼ · impact -30 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  53. · ◇ What if… Nicolás Maduro remains Venezuela's leader at end of 2026 — ▲ · impact +40 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  54. · ◇ What if… US and Iran fail to hold diplomatic meeting by September 30 — ▲ · impact +75 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  55. · UN report says US strike on Iran school may be war crime — ▲ · impact +66 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  56. · Trump signs Russia sanctions bill into law — ▲ · impact +78 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  57. · ◇ What if… China imposes a blockade on Taiwan — ▲ · impact +42 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  58. · ◇ What if… US and Iran hold diplomatic meeting by September 30 — ▼ · impact -46 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  59. · ◇ What if… US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31 — ▼ · impact -60 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  60. · ◇ What if… Iran charges fees for Strait of Hormuz passage by October 31 — ▲ · impact +70 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  61. · ◇ What if… Israel strikes four countries in 2026 — ▲ · impact +74 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  62. · ◇ What if… Reza Pahlavi enters Iran by December 31 — ▼ · impact -58 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  63. · ◇ What if… Saudi Arabia restarts East-West oil pipeline by September 30 — ▼ · impact -52 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  64. · ◇ What if… Houthis enter Aden by September 30 — ▲ · impact +78 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  65. · Houthis strike Saudi targets as Hormuz talks stall — ▲ · impact +80 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  66. · Dangote launches Africa’s biggest oil refinery as ‘people’s IPO’ — ▼ · impact -45 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  67. · Trump says US could stay in Iran and keep oil — ▲ · impact +76 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  68. · Saudi Arabia shuts oil pipeline as Houthis tighten Red Sea grip — ▲ · impact +72 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  69. · Saudi Arabia reports Iraq-launched drones hit East-West pipeline — ▲ · impact +65 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  70. · Iran-US shipping attacks drive oil tanker rates to records — ▲ · impact +92 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  71. · ◇ What if… Crude oil reaches a new all-time high by December 31 — ▲ · impact +48 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  72. · Trump administration to sanction a large unnamed bank on Monday — ▲ · impact +74 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  73. · ◇ What if… Iran withdraws from the NPT before 2027 — ▲ · impact +62 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  74. · ◇ What if… Benjamin Netanyahu becomes Israel's next prime minister — ▲ · impact +30 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  75. · Houthis tighten control over strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait — ▲ · impact +80 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  76. · ECB set to raise rates as Iran war fuels inflation — ▲ · impact +70 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  77. · US EIA raises oil forecasts as Iran war drains stockpiles — ▲ · impact +68 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  78. · ◇ What if… Israeli forces withdraw beyond the Litani River by December 31 — ▼ · impact -46 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  79. · Merchant vessels suffer disabling fires in Gulf — ▲ · impact +84 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  80. · Middle East tensions push oil toward $100 as Asia stocks weaken — ▲ · impact +75 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  81. · Iran missile launch at Jordan lifts oil prices — ▲ · impact +74 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  82. · Iran says it captured US submarine drone in Strait of Hormuz — ▲ · impact +74 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  83. · South African economy shrinks in second quarter amid Iran war — ▲ · impact +75 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  84. · ◇ What if… Netanyahu leaves office as Israel's prime minister by end of 2026 — ▼ · impact -30 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  85. · Iran plans new Gulf exclusion zone and threatens US — ▲ · impact +79 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  86. · ◇ What if… Iran and Oman reach a Hormuz agreement by September 30 — ▼ · impact -79 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  87. · ◇ What if… US and Iran reach a final nuclear deal by December 31 — ▼ · impact -50 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  88. · US-Iranian strikes push Strait of Hormuz traffic to lowest since May — ▲ · impact +88 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  89. · ◇ What if… Strait of Hormuz disruption drives crude oil prices 30% higher — ▲ · impact +85 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  90. · US and allies seek IAEA referral of Iran to UN Security Council — ▲ · impact +61 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  91. · Trump says US may strike Iran's Pickaxe Mountain soon — ▲ · impact +70 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  92. · Ukraine and Iran wars push diesel to record highs — ▲ · impact +66 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  93. · US attack hits Iranian tanker near Kharg Island — ▲ · impact +81 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  94. · Renewed US-Iran strikes lift oil and diesel prices — ▲ · impact +74 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  95. · Iran fires on Kuwait after reported US wedding attack — ▲ · impact +68 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  96. · ◇ What if… Israel closes its airspace by September 30 — ▲ · impact +44 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  97. · ◇ What if… Iran closes its entire airspace by September 30 — ▲ · impact +75 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  98. · ◇ What if… Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire by December 31, 2026 — ▼ · impact -56 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  99. · ◇ What if… Israel-Iran ceasefire continues through September 30 — ▼ · impact -59 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  100. · ◇ What if… US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30 — ▼ · impact -62 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  101. · ◇ What if… Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 — ▼ · impact -77 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  102. · ◇ What if… Iranian regime falls before 2027, reshaping regional energy markets — ▼ · impact -58 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  103. · ◇ What if… US invasion of Iran occurs before 2027, threatening global energy markets — ▲ · impact +86 · confidence low · horizon immediate

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