Scenarios that move DOW

Dow Inc. Common Stock

Scenarios that move DOW: 89 analyses, 27 positive, 62 negative.

  1. · Iranian Guards say two tankers hit mines in Hormuz — ▼ · impact -42 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  2. · PetroChina set for record trading profit as war upends markets — ▼ · impact -50 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  3. · Trump says US may need to strike Iran's Pickaxe Mountain — ▼ · impact -42 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  4. · ◇ What if… Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026 — ▲ · impact +45 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  5. · FMC Corporation stock crashes as investors seek explanation — ▼ · impact -55 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  6. · ◇ What if… Iran and Oman fail to reach a Hormuz agreement — ▼ · impact -50 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
  7. · Iran’s precision strikes damage Gulf infrastructure and blunt US war plans — ▼ · impact -45 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  8. · TotalEnergies flags quarterly profit surge as Iran war lifts energy prices — ▼ · impact -60 · confidence high · horizon weeks
  9. · Container ship sinks near Hormuz after projectile strike — ▼ · impact -42 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  10. · ◇ What if… Iran and Oman reach Hormuz agreement by October 31 — ▲ · impact +44 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
  11. · US blockade keeps Iranian crude exports at zero in October — ▼ · impact -50 · confidence high · horizon weeks
  12. · Saudi Arabia leads OPEC+ output increase despite Iran war — ▲ · impact +35 · confidence low · horizon immediate
  13. · ◇ What if… Iran reaches Hormuz agreement as Republicans win Senate — ▲ · impact +42 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  14. · Iran fortifies nuclear sites ahead of possible US strikes — ▼ · impact -45 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  15. · Saudi Arabia faces new missile and drone attacks — ▼ · impact -40 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  16. · Europe faces another year of high gas prices as reserves fall — ▼ · impact -64 · confidence high · horizon quarters
  17. · Iran calls US response to Hormuz reopening proposal insufficient — ▼ · impact -55 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  18. · US military disables cargo vessel breaching Iran blockade — ▼ · impact -42 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  19. · HELE Q2 earnings beat estimates, guidance raised on margin gains — ▼ · impact -35 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  20. · Global stocks and Treasuries fall as Brent tops $102 — ▼ · impact -59 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  21. · ◇ What if… US and Iran ceasefire continues through October 15 — ▲ · impact +49 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  22. · Oil tanker transits through Hormuz fall to two-month low — ▼ · impact -44 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  23. · IEA says it will accelerate oil reserve release — ▲ · impact +41 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
  24. · Iran official says illegal Strait of Hormuz routes will soon be blocked — ▼ · impact -48 · confidence high · horizon weeks
  25. · Shell sees record-high refining margins in third quarter — ▼ · impact -44 · confidence high · horizon weeks
  26. · EU envoys set to approve major new Russia sanctions — ▼ · impact -38 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  27. · US EIA hikes oil price forecasts as Iran war drains stockpiles — ▼ · impact -55 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  28. · ◇ What if… Crude oil reaches $150 a barrel — ▼ · impact -58 · confidence high · horizon quarters
  29. · Petrobras stock rises 11.5% in trading — ▼ · impact -36 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  30. · Saudi Arabia plans assault on Houthis to reopen Red Sea — ▼ · impact -38 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  31. · OPEC+ delays oil capacity review as Iran war disrupts plans — ▼ · impact -50 · confidence high · horizon quarters
  32. · ◇ What if… Saudi Arabia restarts East-West oil pipeline by October 15 — ▲ · impact +40 · confidence high · horizon weeks
  33. · US sanctions Iran’s auto and rail sectors as blockade chokes shipping — ▼ · impact -49 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  34. · Projectiles hit three oil tankers in Strait of Hormuz — ▼ · impact -42 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  35. · ◇ What if… US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15 — ▲ · impact +54 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  36. · ◇ What if… Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by December 31 — ▲ · impact +49 · confidence high · horizon weeks
  37. · Trump rejects Iran peace proposal as oil spikes — ▼ · impact -52 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  38. · ◇ What if… Trump and Putin fail to hold a meeting — ▼ · impact -43 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  39. · Vessel traffic through Strait of Hormuz falls to two — ▼ · impact -59 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  40. · ◇ What if… Iran undergoes leadership change by December 31 — ▲ · impact +38 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  41. · Iran offers to reopen Strait of Hormuz if US eases pressure — ▲ · impact +39 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
  42. · ◇ What if… Iran loses control of Kharg Island by December 31 — ▼ · impact -50 · confidence high · horizon quarters
  43. · ◇ What if… US and Iran ceasefire continues through September 30 — ▲ · impact +50 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  44. · ◇ What if… US and Iran fail to hold diplomatic meeting by September 30 — ▼ · impact -47 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  45. · Trump signs Russia sanctions bill into law — ▼ · impact -48 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  46. · ◇ What if… US and Iran hold diplomatic meeting by September 30 — ▲ · impact +51 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  47. · ◇ What if… US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31 — ▲ · impact +37 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
  48. · ◇ What if… Iran charges fees for Strait of Hormuz passage by October 31 — ▼ · impact -53 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  49. · ◇ What if… Israel strikes four countries in 2026 — ▼ · impact -50 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  50. · ◇ What if… Saudi Arabia restarts East-West oil pipeline by September 30 — ▲ · impact +34 · confidence high · horizon quarters
  51. · ◇ What if… Houthis enter Aden by September 30 — ▼ · impact -36 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  52. · Houthis strike Saudi targets as Hormuz talks stall — ▼ · impact -50 · confidence high · horizon weeks
  53. · Olin and Huntsman merger clears US antitrust hurdle — ▼ · impact -51 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  54. · Trump says US could stay in Iran and keep oil — ▼ · impact -47 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  55. · Saudi Arabia shuts oil pipeline as Houthis tighten Red Sea grip — ▼ · impact -50 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  56. · Saudi Arabia reports Iraq-launched drones hit East-West pipeline — ▼ · impact -50 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  57. · Iran-US shipping attacks drive oil tanker rates to records — ▼ · impact -51 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
  58. · ◇ What if… Crude oil reaches a new all-time high by December 31 — ▼ · impact -54 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
  59. · Trump administration to sanction a large unnamed bank on Monday — ▼ · impact -30 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  60. · ◇ What if… WTI crude oil reaches $100 in September — ▼ · impact -47 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
  61. · ◇ What if… Iran withdraws from the NPT before 2027 — ▼ · impact -43 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  62. · US EIA raises oil forecasts as Iran war drains stockpiles — ▼ · impact -46 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
  63. · Dow weighs exiting $20 billion partnership with Aramco — ▲ · impact +79 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  64. · Merchant vessels suffer disabling fires in Gulf — ▼ · impact -32 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  65. · Middle East tensions push oil toward $100 as Asia stocks weaken — ▼ · impact -57 · confidence medium · horizon immediate
  66. · Iran missile launch at Jordan lifts oil prices — ▼ · impact -44 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  67. · Iran says it captured US submarine drone in Strait of Hormuz — ▼ · impact -50 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  68. · South African economy shrinks in second quarter amid Iran war — ▼ · impact -50 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  69. · Iran plans new Gulf exclusion zone and threatens US — ▼ · impact -42 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  70. · ◇ What if… Iran and Oman reach a Hormuz agreement by September 30 — ▲ · impact +50 · confidence high · horizon quarters
  71. · ◇ What if… US and Iran reach a final nuclear deal by December 31 — ▲ · impact +58 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  72. · US-Iranian strikes push Strait of Hormuz traffic to lowest since May — ▼ · impact -50 · confidence high · horizon immediate
  73. · ◇ What if… Strait of Hormuz disruption drives crude oil prices 30% higher — ▼ · impact -63 · confidence high · horizon weeks
  74. · ◇ What if… Global oil prices reach $150 a barrel — ▼ · impact -68 · confidence medium · horizon quarters
  75. · US and allies seek IAEA referral of Iran to UN Security Council — ▼ · impact -42 · confidence high · horizon weeks
  76. · Trump says US may strike Iran's Pickaxe Mountain soon — ▼ · impact -44 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  77. · Kenya’s President Ruto expels Tata Chemicals from soda-ash operation — ▲ · impact +35 · confidence low · horizon weeks
  78. · US attack hits Iranian tanker near Kharg Island — ▼ · impact -44 · confidence high · horizon weeks
  79. · Renewed US-Iran strikes lift oil and diesel prices — ▼ · impact -52 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  80. · Iran fires on Kuwait after reported US wedding attack — ▼ · impact -42 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  81. · ◇ What if… Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire by December 31, 2026 — ▲ · impact +52 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  82. · ◇ What if… US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30 — ▲ · impact +52 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  83. · ◇ What if… Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 — ▲ · impact +50 · confidence high · horizon quarters
  84. · ◇ What if… Putin leaves office as Russia’s president by December 31, 2026 — ▲ · impact +40 · confidence low · horizon quarters
  85. · ◇ What if… Iranian regime falls before 2027, reshaping regional energy markets — ▲ · impact +46 · confidence medium · horizon weeks
  86. · ◇ What if… US invasion of Iran occurs before 2027, threatening global energy markets — ▼ · impact -60 · confidence high · horizon quarters
  87. · OPEC Announces Surprise 2M Barrel Increase — ▲ · confidence low
  88. · ◇ What if… OPEC Doubles Oil Production Flooding Global Markets — ▲ · confidence medium
  89. · ◇ What if… Federal Government Bans All Crude Oil Exports Effective Immediately — ▲ · confidence medium

All scenarios · Run a scenario · Pricing