ASML reports €11.7 billion sales and €5.0 billion net income

ASML reports €11.7 billion sales and €5.0 billion net income: the analysis positions ASML, TSM and AMAT to benefit and INTC, GFS and ACLS under pressure; confidence low.

Analyzed 2026-10-14 — point-in-time, never revised. Outcomes are scored against SPY and published either way.

Ranked exposures

  1. ▲ ASML ASML — impact +95 · confidence low · horizon immediate · 1st order
    ASML converts elevated lithography shipments into recognized system revenue and service income, supporting margins and order backlog.
    Chain: record EUV and DUV shipments recognized as revenue → system gross margin lifted by richer EUV mix → installed base service revenue grows with fleet → net income reaches five billion euros
    What would break the call: A guidance cut citing weak bookings or export license denials would break the revenue momentum.
  2. ▲ TSM Taiwan Semiconductor — impact +69 · confidence medium · horizon quarters · 1st order
    TSMC converts expanded EUV capacity into premium advanced-node wafer demand from AI customers.
    Chain: TSMC takes delivery of EUV scanners → leading edge wafer capacity expands at N3 and N2 → AI customers absorb capacity at premium prices → wafer revenue and gross margin rise
    What would break the call: An AI order digestion phase that cuts N3 utilization would undercut advanced node wafer pricing.
  3. ▲ AMAT Applied Materials — impact +66 · confidence medium · horizon weeks · 2nd order
    Applied Materials gains deposition and etch orders because advanced fabs require these tools alongside every EUV layer.
    Chain: foundries install new EUV lithography capacity → each litho layer requires deposition and etch steps → Applied receives matched process tool orders → semiconductor systems revenue grows
    What would break the call: Tighter China export rules cutting Applied mature node sales would offset leading edge gains.
  4. ▲ LRCX Lam Research — impact +64 · confidence medium · horizon weeks · 2nd order
    Lam Research gains etch and deposition orders as leading-edge fabs expand capacity around newly delivered EUV scanners.
    Chain: advanced fabs expand around new EUV scanners → etch and deposition intensity rises per node → Lam wins matched tool orders → systems revenue and backlog grow
    What would break the call: A NAND capex pause would cut Lam systems revenue despite healthy leading edge logic spending.
  5. ▲ KLAC KLA — impact +62 · confidence medium · horizon weeks · 2nd order
    KLA increases inspection and metrology revenue because EUV layer growth requires tighter process control across expanded production lines.
    Chain: more EUV layers enter production flows → defect risk per wafer increases → fabs add inspection and metrology tools → KLA process control revenue rises
    What would break the call: Fabs stretching existing inspection tools instead of buying new ones would flatten KLA orders.
  6. ▲ ONTO Onto Innovation — impact +55 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 2nd order
    Onto Innovation metrology demand tracks the advanced node ramps confirmed by record lithography shipments and bookings.
    Chain: advanced logic and packaging ramps confirmed → measurement steps added per wafer → Onto sells metrology and inspection systems → revenue grows with node ramps
    What would break the call: A single large customer deferring packaging inspection orders would swing Onto quarterly revenue lower.
  7. ▼ INTC Intel — impact -54 · confidence medium · horizon quarters · 2nd order
    Intel faces margin pressure as rival EUV expansion forces higher capital spending and depreciation.
    Chain: rivals add EUV capacity faster → Intel must match capital spending → depreciation and fab underutilization costs rise → gross margin stays pressured
    What would break the call: A large external 18A foundry customer win would fill Intel fabs and lift margins.
  8. ▲ NVMI Nova — impact +54 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 2nd order
    Nova supplies dimensional metrology into the same advanced logic and memory fabs expanding their lithography fleets.
    Chain: logic and memory fabs expand litho fleets → dimensional and film metrology steps increase → Nova wins integrated metrology orders → product revenue rises
    What would break the call: A DRAM capex pullback would remove the memory half of Nova metrology demand.
  9. ▲ ENTG Entegris — impact +51 · confidence medium · horizon quarters · 3rd order
    Entegris increases recurring filtration and materials-handling sales as new EUV capacity consumes products per wafer.
    Chain: new EUV capacity starts wafer production → consumption of filters and advanced materials rises → Entegris recurring unit revenue grows → materials solutions sales follow wafer starts
    What would break the call: New fabs delaying production starts would postpone the consumables revenue by several quarters.
  10. ▲ MKSI MKS — impact +50 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 2nd order
    MKS supplies lasers, vacuum and photonics subsystems to lithography and adjacent toolmakers riding the same capital cycle.
    Chain: lithography and process toolmakers raise build rates → subsystem orders for lasers and vacuum increase → MKS semiconductor segment revenue grows → margin leverage from higher volume
    What would break the call: Weak PCB and specialty industrial demand could overwhelm the semiconductor subsystem recovery.
  11. ▲ SNPS Synopsys — impact +48 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 3rd order
    Synopsys captures higher design software demand as foundries broaden advanced process capacity enabled by lithography investment.
    Chain: foundry advanced capacity expands → more chip designs target leading edge nodes → demand for EDA tools and IP rises → Synopsys recurring revenue grows
    What would break the call: Customer consolidation or a design start slowdown would stall Synopsys backlog growth.
  12. ▲ CAMT Camtek — impact +46 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 3rd order
    Camtek inspects advanced packaging lines fed by the leading-edge wafers these lithography tools help produce.
    Chain: leading edge wafers feed advanced packaging lines → HBM and chiplet inspection steps increase → Camtek wins packaging inspection orders → revenue grows with packaging capex
    What would break the call: An HBM capacity pause at a major memory maker would cut Camtek packaging orders.
  13. ▲ CDNS Cadence — impact +45 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 3rd order
    Cadence gains verification and implementation revenue from chip designers targeting additional advanced node manufacturing capacity.
    Chain: advanced node capacity becomes available → designers commit to new leading edge projects → verification and implementation tool demand rises → Cadence recurring revenue grows
    What would break the call: An AI custom silicon spending pause would slow Cadence design activity and IP bookings.
  14. ▲ NVDA Nvidia — impact +45 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 3rd order
    Nvidia needs the leading-edge foundry capacity EUV expansion unlocks, easing supply constraints on accelerator shipments.
    Chain: EUV expansion lifts leading edge wafer supply → TSMC allocates more N3 and N4 capacity → accelerator supply constraints ease → Nvidia data center shipment volume rises
    What would break the call: Advanced packaging capacity rather than wafers remains the binding limit on accelerator shipments.
  15. ▼ GFS GlobalFoundries — impact -43 · confidence medium · horizon quarters · 3rd order
    GlobalFoundries loses higher-value foundry programs because skipping EUV excludes it from advanced capacity expansion.
    Chain: industry capex concentrates on EUV nodes → GlobalFoundries stays on mature technologies → high value programs route to leading edge foundries → GFS wafer revenue and pricing lag
    What would break the call: Strong automotive and defense design wins would lift GlobalFoundries utilization regardless of leading edge trends.
  16. ▲ AMD AMD — impact +43 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 3rd order
    AMD benefits from greater leading edge foundry availability that supports higher volumes of competitive processors.
    Chain: TSMC leading edge capacity expands → AMD secures larger N3 and N2 allocation → server and accelerator shipments increase → data center revenue grows
    What would break the call: Losing MI accelerator design wins to competitors would cap AMD volume despite ample wafer supply.
  17. ▲ AVGO Broadcom — impact +41 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 3rd order
    Broadcom receives larger advanced node allocation, supporting shipment growth for networking and custom accelerator products.
    Chain: foundry advanced capacity expands → Broadcom gains wafer allocation for custom ASICs → networking and accelerator shipments increase → semiconductor solutions revenue grows
    What would break the call: A hyperscaler shifting custom silicon work to another vendor would cut Broadcom ASIC volume.
  18. ▼ ACLS Axcelis — impact -40 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 3rd order
    Axcelis sells ion implanters into mature and power nodes, a segment losing equipment spending share to lithography.
    Chain: equipment spending concentrates at leading edge → mature and power node capex stays weak → implant tool orders decline → Axcelis systems revenue falls
    What would break the call: A silicon carbide capex recovery or China order surge would restore Axcelis implant demand.
  19. ▲ TER Teradyne — impact +35 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 3rd order
    More advanced node wafer output raises test insertion demand, lifting Teradyne semiconductor tester shipments to logic and memory customers.
    Chain: advanced node wafer output expands → more complex die require longer test time → tester capacity additions ordered → Teradyne semiconductor test revenue grows
    What would break the call: Customers reusing installed tester capacity instead of buying new systems would flatten revenue.
  20. ▼ KLIC Kulicke and Soffa — impact -32 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 3rd order
    Kulicke and Soffa depends on legacy packaging and China orders rather than the advanced lithography investment wave.
    Chain: capital spending shifts to advanced lithography → legacy wire bond and China demand stays soft → Kulicke equipment orders remain weak → revenue and margin stay pressured
    What would break the call: Thermocompression bonding wins for high bandwidth memory would place Kulicke inside the advanced cycle.
  21. ▲ AEIS Advanced Energy Industries — impact +32 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 3rd order
    Advanced Energy sells precision power supplies into etch and deposition platforms whose build rates rise with leading edge fab capex.
    Chain: process toolmakers raise production build rates → plasma power subsystem orders increase → Advanced Energy semiconductor revenue grows → factory utilization improves margin
    What would break the call: A weak data center power and industrial segment would mask the semiconductor revenue gain.
  22. ▼ UMC United Microelectronics — impact -31 · confidence medium · horizon quarters · 3rd order
    UMC loses customer demand as advanced lithography widens performance gaps and pressures mature-node pricing.
    Chain: leading edge capacity grows with EUV installs → performance gap versus mature nodes widens → customers migrate designs to advanced foundries → UMC utilization and wafer pricing fall
    What would break the call: A broad analog and consumer restocking cycle would refill UMC mature node utilization.
  23. ▲ FORM FormFactor — impact +30 · confidence low · horizon quarters · 3rd order
    FormFactor probe cards are consumed per design and per wafer, so advanced node ramps raise recurring probe card revenue.
    Chain: new advanced node designs enter production → each design requires custom probe cards → wafer starts consume probe card capacity → FormFactor probe revenue grows
    What would break the call: A slowdown in new tapeouts would cut custom probe card orders despite steady wafer volume.
  24. ▼ MCHP Microchip — impact -28 · confidence low · horizon quarters
    Microchip runs mature node capacity with weak utilization, a contrast that widens as leading-edge investment accelerates.

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ASML · TSM · AMAT · LRCX · KLAC · ONTO · INTC · NVMI · ENTG · MKSI · SNPS · CAMT · CDNS · NVDA · GFS · AMD · AVGO · ACLS · TER · KLIC · AEIS · UMC · FORM · MCHP · COHR · ASX · TSEM · AEHR · WOLF · PLAB

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